气象科技进展2023，Vol.13Issue(6)：49-53,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2023.06.006
运城市极端气温变化特征及不同重现期气温估计
Characteristics of Extreme Temperature Variation and Temperature Estimates during Different Return Periods in Yuncheng City
摘要
Abstract
Based on the monthly maximum temperature and minimum temperature data in Yuncheng City from 1961 to 2020,the annual extreme values of maximum temperature and minimum temperature in different return periods were fitted and calculated by Pearson type-Ⅲ,Gumbel and Log-normal distribution methods.Three measures of fitting standard deviation,fitting relative deviation and Kolmogorov test were also used to give a comparative superiority evaluation.The results show that for nearly 60 years,both the mean maximum(minimum)temperature and extreme maximum(minimum)temperature in Yuncheng City show an increasing trend,and the increasing trend of the low temperature is significantly greater than that of the high temperature;the annual average extreme maximum temperature and minimum temperature are mainly concentrated from June to July and late December to early February,respectively.The best lognormal distribution fitting effects are identified in annual extreme maximum temperature and extreme minimum temperature in Yuncheng City,while the extreme maximum(minimum)temperature fitted by Gumbel distribution tends to be higher(lower)than the observed data.关键词
极端气温/重现期/拟合优度检验Key words
extreme temperature/return period/goodness-of-fit test引用本文复制引用
赵俊杰,高艳平,李智才..运城市极端气温变化特征及不同重现期气温估计[J].气象科技进展,2023,13(6):49-53,5.基金项目
山西省青年基金项目(SXKQNDW20236350) （SXKQNDW20236350）
中国气象局云降水物理环境重点开放实验室开放课题(2020Z00725) （2020Z00725）
