气象水文海洋仪器2023，Vol.40Issue(4)：91-94,4.
一次梅雨锋特大暴雨过程的预报误差分析
Analysis of forecast error of a Meiyu front torrential rain process
摘要
Abstract
Based on conventional meteorological observation data,operational numerical prediction model and FNL reanalysis data,this paper analyzes a Meiyu front rainstorm process in central Jiangxi Province on July 9,2020 from the aspects of atmospheric circulation background,water vapor conditions,dynamic field and thermal field characteristics.The possible reasons for the large deviation of numerical model forecast in this rainstorm process are given.It is pointed out that the forecast should focus on the adjustment trend of the global model and the forecast of the convective region in the mesoscale regional model,which provides a scientific reference for the forecasters to forecast and correct this kind of heavy rain process.关键词
梅雨锋/特大暴雨/预报偏差Key words
Meiyu front/heavy rainstorm/forecast error分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
肖雯,凌婷..一次梅雨锋特大暴雨过程的预报误差分析[J].气象水文海洋仪器,2023,40(4):91-94,4.基金项目
2019年江西省预报员专项"2018台风'山竹'作用下一次远距离飑线特征及机理分析"(193020100190)资助. （193020100190）
