热带亚热带植物学报2024，Vol.32Issue(1)：17-26,10.DOI:10.11926/jtsb.4703
基于最大熵模型的中国兜兰属植物潜在分布模拟
Simulation of Potential Distribution of Paphiopedilum in China Based on MaxEnt Model
摘要
Abstract
Based on the known distribution and 20 environmental factors,the potential distribution pattern of genus Paphiopedilum was simulated by using MaxEnt model under two different sharing economy scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP5-8.5)in the present(1970-2000)and the future(2081-2100).The contribution rate of climate factors was analyzed to find out the dominant climate factors affecting species distribution and their variation range.The results showed that the most suitable distribution areas of the genus were located in southeast Yunnan,southwest Guizhou,western Guangxi,southern Guangdong and northern Hainan.The main environmental factors affecting the distribution of the genus were annual precipitation,annual temperature range and precipitation in the driest season.With global warming,the suitable area had a tendency to expand northward and northwestward,gradually extending to the northwest subtropical direction.Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,the high suitability area showed a large shrinkage.In the future climate scenarios,the distribution patterns of different populations are not consistent,and their distribution patterns respond to climate change trends.Therefore,different conservation strategies are proposed for species with different distribution trends.关键词
兜兰属/最大熵模型/气候因子/气候变化Key words
Paphiopedilum/Maximum entropy model/Dominant climate factor/Climate change引用本文复制引用
黄智聪,舒江平,严岳鸿,陈建兵..基于最大熵模型的中国兜兰属植物潜在分布模拟[J].热带亚热带植物学报,2024,32(1):17-26,10.基金项目
中央林业改革发展基金项目(粤财资环[2019]5 号)资助This work was supported by the National Forestry Reform and Development Fund(Grant No.[2019]5). （粤财资环[2019]5 号）
