人口与经济Issue(1)：90-102,13.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2023.00.056
初婚年龄变迁的稳定因素
The Stable Factors of Age at First Marriage:Empirical Research Based on the Perspective from Intergenerational Transmission
摘要
Abstract
The age of first marriage in China shows an obvious trend of delaying.Trend is the result of both"promoting change"and"maintaining stability",but in the existing research,there is relatively little attention to the latter.From the perspective of intergenerational transmission,and using data from the 2010-2018 China Family Panel Survey(CFPS),this paper investigates the stable factors of age at first marriage in China.Applying event history survival analysis,findings reveal a significant intergenerational transmission,but the effects of father and mother differ.It shows that the father's first marriage age significantly affects the children's(especially the son's)first marriage age,showing the characteristics of intergenerational transmission;However,the mother's age at first marriage had no significant independent effect and did not change with the gender of the child.In addition to father/mother differences,the intergenerational influence between parents is related to each other,and the consistency of parents'first marriage timing is high.If both parents marry early or late,the intergenerational transmission influence will be more obvious.The further observation of the intergenerational influence in the macro environment found that when the difference between the father's first marriage age and the average first marriage age of others around him was large,the father's intergenerational influence was more prominent.Intergenerational transmission indicates the important role of parents in individuals'marital behaviors,which flatten the overall trend toward later marriage.In this regard,intergenerational transmission provides a analysis path and perspective into the interminglement of change and invariance in the transition of Chinese marriage and family today.关键词
初婚年龄/代际传递/父母婚龄一致性/地方平均初婚年龄Key words
age at first marriage/intergenerational transmission/the consistency of parents first marriage age/local mean age of first marriage分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
刘志强,宋月萍..初婚年龄变迁的稳定因素[J].人口与经济,2024,(1):90-102,13.基金项目
中国人民大学公共健康与卫生疾控文理交叉团队2023年度"中央高校建设世界一流大学(学科)和特色发展引导专项资金"(2023PDPC). （学科）
