四川省1960-2019年干湿事件时空演变特征分析OA
Analysis of Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of Dry and Wet Events in Sichuan Province from 1960 to 2019
四川省人口众多,各地气候异质性强,干湿特征对气象变化比较敏感,研究干湿的时空演变特征可以为当地采取应对气候变化的对策提供依据.基于游程理论识别并刻画四川 1960-2019 年干湿事件及其代际和季节性特征,利用Mann-Kendall检验、小波分析描述干湿的趋势性、显著性和周期性,结果表明:四川地区 1990s干湿事件最多,2000s干湿事件最少,其中川西地区最干,川东最湿,且均在 1980s分别达到干湿事件次数峰值;四川地区干旱事件主要在春、冬两季发生,湿润事件主要在夏、秋两季发生,其中春季主要在川西发生干旱事件,秋季主要在川西、川北地区发生湿润事件;川西、川北地区有湿润倾向,川南、川东地区有干旱倾向,除川南地区外,其他分区夏季SPEI序列均呈下降趋势,川西、川东地区冬季SPEI序列下降趋势放缓.
Sichuan Province has a large population and experiences substantial regional climate heterogeneity,resulting in differential sensitivity of dryness and wetness to meteorological changes.Examining the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of dryness and wetness can provide a basis for local departments to take countermeasures against climate change.The dry and wet events in Sichuan from 1960 to 2019 and their intergenerational and seasonal characteristics are identified and described based on run theory.The trend,significance,and periodicity of dry and wet events are described by the Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis.The results show that Sichuan Province experienced the highest frequency of dry and wet events in the 1990s and the lowest frequency of the events in the 2000s.Western Sichuan is the driest,while eastern Sichuan is the wettest,with both reaching peak dry and wet event counts in the 1980s.In Sichuan,drought events occur mainly in spring and winter,while humid events occur mainly in summer and autumn.Drought events occur mainly in western Sichuan in spring,and humid events occur mainly in western and northern Sichuan in autumn.The western and northern Sichuan areas tend to be humid,while the southern and eastern Sichuan areas tend to be dry.Except for southern Sichuan,the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)sequence in summer shows a downward trend in other areas,while the downward trend of the SPEI sequence in winter slows down in western and eastern Sichuan areas.
黄祎;黎云云;樊晶晶;郑钧蔚;张庆
绵阳师范学院,四川 绵阳 621000河北工程大学,河北 邯郸 056038
水利科学
干湿演变SPEIMann-Kendall小波分析四川
dry and wet evolutionSPEIMann-Kendallwavelet analysisSichuan
《人民珠江》 2024 (001)
72-84,94 / 14
国家自然科学基金项目(52009053);绵阳师范学院科研启动项目(QD2020A06)
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