工程科学与技术2024，Vol.56Issue(1)：127-137,11.DOI:10.15961/j.jsuese.202300320
考虑人体与水流相互作用的溃坝洪水生命损失评估模型
A Method for Estimating Human Loss of Life in Dam-Breach Flood Considering Human-Fluid Interaction
摘要
Abstract
Dam-breach floods pose a significant threat to human life downstream.Conducting a quantitative risk assessment of life loss caused by dam-breach has important practical implications for emergency response and disaster relief efforts.This study presents the HURAM2.0 model,an extension of the existing HURAM1.0 model of life loss Bayesian network,which considers the interaction between the human body and water flow.It first assesses the stability of individuals in floodwaters and then determines the risk of drowning.By employing Monte Carlo simulation,the model integrates the effects of water depth and flow velocity on life loss.The HURAM2.0 model is applied to analyze the life loss caused by the breach of the Tangjiashan landslide dam.The main conclusions are as follows:The HURAM2.0 model established a quantitative relationship between flow velocity and loss of life,thereby providing a more accurate description of the stability and survival capabilities of the human body in water flow.In comparison to the HURAM1.0 model,the HURAM2.0 model demonstrated greater accuracy in predicting the loss of life under conditions of strong flood intensity.Additionally,within the HURAM2.0 model,apart from water depth and flood severity which remain relat-ively consistent,the sensitivity of the other variables increases.Specifically,the number of floors in residential buildings,shelter provided by buildings,and duration of the breach variables were found to exhibit a respective increase in their impact on model calculations by 142%,95%,and 93%.This enhancement strengthens the model's interpretability under low,medium,and high flood intensity,providing a favorable position for Bayesian inversion.In the risk analysis of the Tangjiashan landslide dam,the HURAM2.0 model differentiates the loss of life under different flow velocity conditions,which aligns more closely with reality.The risk and mortality rate were high before the spillway was excavated.The risk was significantly reduced and the number of deaths greatly decreased after on-site surveys and spillway excavation.It is recommended to use early warning systems and evacuation measures to mitigate the risk of life loss.关键词
溃坝/人体稳定性/生命损失风险/贝叶斯网络/堰塞坝溃决洪水Key words
dam breach/physical modeling of human stability/risk of loss of life/Bayesian network/landslide dam breach floods分类
地质学引用本文复制引用
彭铭,马福军,沈丹祎,蔡一坚,石振明,周家文,刘西军..考虑人体与水流相互作用的溃坝洪水生命损失评估模型[J].工程科学与技术,2024,56(1):127-137,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42071010 （）
42061160480) （）
水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室开放基金(SKHL2011) （SKHL2011）
