基于运量预测的赣粤运河开发综合效益OACHSSCDCSTPCD

Based on the current freight volume of expressways and railways,this study forecasts the comprehensive traffic volume of land transportation in Guangdong Province,and obtains the short-term and long-term transport volume of the Ganyue Canal.On this basis,the comprehensive benefits of the Ganyue Canal are analyzed.It is found that:the predicted transport volume of the Ganyue Canal in 2035 and 2050 is about 15 million tons and 20 million tons,respectively.After the opening of the Ganyue Canal,compared to road transportation,it is expected to save about 1.49 to 1.98 billion Yuan in transportation costs annually.The economic contribution of the new output value of the Ganyue Canal is approximately 210 million Yuan to 290 million Yuan per year from 2035 to 2050 and will be beneficial to the development of related industries.The construction and operation of Gangyue Canal can bring social benefits through various channels such as promoting urbanization,increasing employment,promoting rural revitalization,contributing to the development of shipping culture,accelerating shipping innovation and maintaining homeland security.At the level of water resources utilization and ecological protection,it can not only enhance the benefits of power generation and irrigation,but also realize the ecological benefits such as energy saving and emission reduction,with energy savings of 98.6 to 131.4 thousand tons per year of standard coal and carbon emission reduction of 213.7 to 284.9 thousand tons per year.