水利学报2023，Vol.54Issue(12)：1507-1518,12.DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20230283
基于时变参数和阈值的非平稳水文干旱评估方法构建
Construction of non-stationary hydrological drought assessment methods based on time-varying parameters and thresholds
摘要
Abstract
In a changing environment,the joint impacts of climate change and human activities lead to non-sta-tionary characteristics of streamflow processes,which urgently require the development of non-stationary hydrologi-cal drought assessment methods.The Weihe River basin in China was selected as the study area,and the non-sta-tionary characteristics of its streamflow processes were analyzed based on the stationarity test,change-point test,and trend analysis methods.The generalized additive model for location,scale,and shape(GAMLSS)model and the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise(CEEMDAN)method were used to con-struct the time-varying Standardized Streamflow Index(SSIvor)and the time-varying Threshold Level series(TLvar)considering the non-stationary characteristics of the streamflow to carry out the non-stationary hydrological drought assessment.Then,standardized precipitation index(SPI)and historical records of drought events were selected to validate the rationality of the two proposed non-stationary assessment methods.The results showed that the time of the change point for the annual streamflow series in the Weihe River basin was concentrated around the year 1990.The streamflow series had a significant(α＜0.05)upward trend during the period after the change point(from 1991 to 2020).Comparison results between different design schemes showed that the SSIvar and TLvar were more robust than the traditional standardized streamflow index or threshold level methods,and can reasonably capture the drought and flood dynamics of the streamflow process.The validation results showed that drought and flood processes char-acterized by the proposed two non-stationary assessment methods were in high agreement with those characterized by the SPI series and historical records of drought events,revealing that these two non-stationary methods are more suitable for the non-stationary hydrological drought assessment in a changing environment.关键词
变化环境/水文干旱/时变标准化径流指数/时变阈值法/渭河流域Key words
changing environment/hydrological drought/time-varying standardized streamflow index/time-var-ying threshold level method/Weihe River basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王孟浩,江善虎,任立良,杨肖丽,方秀琴,严登华..基于时变参数和阈值的非平稳水文干旱评估方法构建[J].水利学报,2023,54(12):1507-1518,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(U2243203,51979069) （U2243203,51979069）
中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室开放研究基金项目(IWHR-SKL-KF202312) （IWHR-SKL-KF202312）
