水资源与水工程学报2023，Vol.34Issue(6)：27-34,8.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2023.06.04
抚河流域气象干旱向水文干旱传播的影响机制研究
Influencing mechanism of meteorological drought to hydrological drought propagation in the Fuhe River Basin
摘要
Abstract
Meteorological drought serves as a precursor to the occurrence of hydrological drought,so ex-ploring the main factors influencing the propagation of meteorological drought to hydrological drought is of vital significance to the establishment of an effective monitoring and early warning system for hydrological drought based on meteorological drought.In the case of the Fuhe River Basin(hereinafter referred to as FRB),the evaluation of meteorological drought and hydrological drought was conducted respectively u-sing the standardized precipitation index and the standardized runoff index.To quantify the impact of cli-mate change and human activities on the propagation of drought,a drought propagation assessment meth-od was developed.This method employed a distributed binary water cycle model,namely WEP-L mod-el,and incorporated a multi-factor integrated impact contribution volume decomposition approach.Through this framework,the contributions of climate change and human activities to the changes in drought propagation could be accurately measured.The findings indicate that a distributed binary water cycle model was successfully constructed for the FRB.The Nash efficiency coefficients of the simulated flow at the basin outlet section were all above 0.85,and the relative errors were all within 5%.The anal-ysis revealed a shift in the relationship between meteorological drought and hydrological drought propaga-tion during the period from the 1980s to the 1990s.Comparing the period from 1991 to 2019 with the ref-erence period of 1956 to 1990,the propagation rate decreased by 8.3%.The dominant factor mitigating the propagation of meteorological drought to hydrological drought was climate change,contributing-9.9%;whereas human activities had a exacerbating effect,contributing 1.6%.Notably,precipitati-on,as the primary driver of drought,increased by 144.3 mm during the study period,playing a signifi-cant role in reducing the sensitivity of meteorological drought to hydrological drought propagation.关键词
气象干旱/水文干旱/传播规律/影响机制/气候变化/人类活动/二元水循环模型/抚河流域Key words
meteorological drought/hydrological drought/propagation law/influencing mechanism/cli-mate change/human activity/WEP-L model/the Fuhe River Basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
郑金丽,周祖昊,刘佳嘉,严子奇,李国文,王钦钊..抚河流域气象干旱向水文干旱传播的影响机制研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2023,34(6):27-34,8.基金项目
江西省水利科技项目(202023ZDKT03) （202023ZDKT03）
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3000205) （2021YFC3000205）
