中国电机工程学报2024，Vol.44Issue(2)：489-503,中插5,16.DOI:10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.221868
基于多项式混沌展开的电力系统概率可用输电能力评估
Probabilistic Available Transfer Capacity Evaluation of Power Systems Using Polynomial Chaos Expansion
摘要
Abstract
The growing uncertainty level caused by the increasing penetration of wind power generation poses a formidable challenge in the available transfer capability(ATC)evaluation of bulk power systems.The existing probabilistic ATC(PATC)calculation methods can solve the ATC of power system with the increasing uncertain wind power,but they may fail in the computational accuracy or efficiency.To handle this challenge,a Polynomial Chaos Expansion(PCE)based chance-constrained PATC calculation method is developed in this paper.The chance-constrained PATC model is formulated,and the polynomial basis is determined according to the probabilistic distributions of wind power forecasting error.Using the determined polynomial basis,the wind power forecasting error and its dependent network variables are represented by the PCE,and the formulated chance-constrained PATC model can be further reformulated as a one-shot deterministic ATC model by using the PCE with the Galerkin projection and moment-based chance constraint representation.Hence,the reformulated ATC model casts the chance-constrained PATC model as a finite dimensional nonlinear program(NLP)with the PCE coefficients as decision variables,and the optimal PCE coefficients can be achieved by solving the reformulated ATC model via the existing optimization solver.Using the solved optimal PCE coefficients and determined polynomial basis,the probabilistic characteristics(e.g.,mean,variance,probability distribution)of PATC can be obtained.Numerical studies on the modified PJM 5-bus test system,modified IEEE 118-bus test system and western Jilin power grid validate the proposed PCE-based PATC method,achieving accurate estimation for the probabilistic characteristics of PATC with a high efficiency.关键词
可用输电能力/多项式混沌展开/概率模型/机会约束/不确定性分析Key words
available transmission capacity/polynomial chaos expansion/probability model/chance constrain/uncertainty analysis分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
姜涛,李春晖,张儒峰,陈厚合,李国庆..基于多项式混沌展开的电力系统概率可用输电能力评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2024,44(2):489-503,中插5,16.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52377083) （52377083）
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFB2400904). Project Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(52377083) （2021YFB2400904）
National Key R&D Program of China(2021YFB2400904). （2021YFB2400904）
