农业展望2023，Vol.19Issue(12)：49-58,10.
基于LMDI的吉林西部地区粮食产量变化的影响因素解析
Factors Affecting Grain Yield Change in Western Jilin Province Based on the LMDI
摘要
Abstract
The western Jilin province is both the growth pole of grain production and an important guarantee area to promote the sustainable and stable growth of grain production capacity in Jilin province.Using the LMDI model,this paper systematically analyzed the changes of grain yield and its influencing factors,quantified the effects of grain sown area,planting structure,and grain yield per unit area on grain yield changes and their temporal and spatial characteristics in western Jilin province from 2000 to 2019.The results showed that:the grain output in western Jilin province increased by 8.250 2 million tons from 2000 to 2019,in which the sown area effect played an obvious positive role,increasing the output by 4.5233 million tons,the structural effect increasing by1.413 8 million tons,and the unit yield effect increased by 2.312 3 million tons,and the proportions of the above mentioned three effects were 54.83%,17.14%and 28.04%,respectively.From the perspective of time changes,the area effect had the highest value of 1.9494 million tons in 2009,and the lowest value of-0.7486 million tons in 2017;the structural effect had the highest value of 0.745 4 million tons in 2004 and the lowest value of-0.216 6 million tons in 2002;yield effect fluctuated strongly in time,the highest value appeared in 2005(4.0747 million tons),and the lowest value appeared in 2009(-4.2969 million tons).In terms of spatial distribution,the highest value of the area effect is in Changling county,the lowest value in Ningjiang district;the highest value of the structural effect is in Fuyu county,the lowest value in Tongyu county;and the highest value of the yield effect is in Qianguo county,the lowest value in Taobei district.Constrained by the fragile ecological environment,western Jilin,as a resource fragile area,should carefully expand the area of cultivated land in the future,focusing on optimizing the planting structure and improving the grain yield per unit area,so as to achieve a long-term sustainable increase in grain production.关键词
粮食产量变化/种植结构/分解效应/LMDI模型/吉林西部地区Key words
grain yield change/planting structure/decomposition effect/LMDI model/western Jilin province引用本文复制引用
戴新,刘文新..基于LMDI的吉林西部地区粮食产量变化的影响因素解析[J].农业展望,2023,19(12):49-58,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42071275) （42071275）
中国科学院A类战略性先导科技专项子课题(XDA23060405) （XDA23060405）
中国工程院院地合作重点咨询项目(JL2020-001) （JL2020-001）
