债务置换改善了地方政府债务可持续性吗?OA北大核心CHSSCDCSTPCD

The impact of debt replacement implemented after 2015 on subnational government debt sustainability is worth paying attention to.This paper takes debt replacement as a quasi-nat-ural experiment,taking 285 cities from 2008 to 2020 as a sample to test the impact of debt re-placement on debt sustainability.It is found that debt replacement has a dual adverse effect on implicit debt and economic growth.First,debt replacement reduces the debt interest burden and lengthens the debt maturity.Although the liquidity risk is alleviated,the debt replacement con-tributes to the moral hazard of subnational governments and strengthens the rescue expectations of financial institutions,resulting in the continued increase of implicit debts,which is generally not conducive to debt sustainability.Second,debt replacement has a significant crowding out effect,and at the same time reduces the efficiency of subnational government debt expenditure,damages economic growth,and is also detrimental to debt sustainability.In view of this,it is necessary to focus on preventing the negative effects of debt replacement in order to improve the effectiveness of subnational government debt governance.