南方电网技术2024，Vol.18Issue(1)：49-57,9.DOI:10.13648/j.cnki.issn1674-0629.2024.01.005
计及预测误差时变相关特性的新型电力系统爬坡容量需求分析方法
Analysis Method for Ramp Capacity Demand of New Power System Considering Time-Variant Correlation Characteristics of Forecast Errors
摘要
Abstract
In order to improve the accuracy of ramp capacity demand analysis of new power system,a method for estimating the ramp capacity demand taking into account the time-variant correlation characteristics of net power load forecast errors is proposed.Firstly,the composition of ramp capacity requirements is clarified,and the relationship between ramp capacity requirements and net power load forecast errors is analyzed.Then,the dynamic Copula function of the net power load forecast errors and the forecast values is established.The time series correlation of the parameters of the Copula function is constructed through the evolution equation.The conditional probability theory is applied to establish the probability distribution model of the ramping demand due to the net load forecast errors,and the confidence interval is used to discretize the estimation result of the ramp capacity demand probability distribu-tion,so as to obtain the corresponding ramp-up capacity requirements.Finally,based on the actual operation data of a power grid in the west of China,three different calculation models are constructed based on whether the time-variant correlation characteristics of forecast errors are considered.The effectiveness and feasibility of the methods proposed in this paper are verified by the results of the example.关键词
爬坡容量/动态Copula函数/条件概率/预测误差Key words
ramp capacity/dynamic Copula function/conditional probability/forecast error分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
任相霖,张粒子,黄弦超..计及预测误差时变相关特性的新型电力系统爬坡容量需求分析方法[J].南方电网技术,2024,18(1):49-57,9.基金项目
国家电网公司总部科技项目(5100-202235272A-2-0-XG). Supported by the Headquarter Science and Technology Project of State Grid Corporation of China(5100-202235272A-2-0-XG). （5100-202235272A-2-0-XG）
