东北三省耕地利用格局变化对粮食全要素生产率的影响OA北大核心CSTPCD

Cultivated land is the most basic element of food production.Currently,there is a prominent contradiction between the expansion of food demand and the regional shortage of food production.It is of great significance to seek a more reasonable pattern of cultivated land utilization to improve the total factor productivity of food.Based on remote sensing monitoring data of land use/land cover change(LUCC),this paper applied GIS software to extract the relevant data of cultivated land use patterns in 2000,2005,2010,and 2015.At the same time,data envelopment analysis model was used to estimate the total factor productivity of grain in three provinces and cities in eastern and northern China in 2000,2005,2010,and 2015.Based on the analysis of the changes in cultivated land use patterns and the measurement of the total factor productivity of grain,a panel data model was constructed using indicators selected from the perspective of changes in cultivated land use patterns to quantitatively analyze their impact on the total factor productivity of grain.The results showed that,first,the four period averages of the total factor productivity of grain in the cities of three northeastern provinces were 0.81,0.78,0.82,and 0.83,respectively.The spatial distribution of the total factor productivity of grain changed from relatively uniform at the beginning to local agglomeration.Second,there was a negative correlation between the cultivated land transfer rate and cultivated land patch fragmentation degree and the total factor productivity of grain,while there was a positive correlation between the cultivated land area ratio,cultivated land transfer rate,and cultivated land patch aggregation degree and the total factor productivity of grain.Third,the increase in the total factor productivity of grain in the three northeastern provinces mainly stemmed from the increase in the area of cultivated land,the transfer of forest land and unused land to cultivated land,and the aggregation of cultivated land in river basins.The decrease in the total factor productivity of grain mainly stemmed from the reduction in the transfer of cultivated land and the occupation of cultivated land by construction land.This research shows that the pattern of arable land use should be strictly planned,land consolidation should continue,and the degree of aggregation of arable land should be improved in order to ensure the effective quantity of arable land,improve the agglomeration and rationality of arable land use patterns,and promote the improvement of the total factor productivity of food.