水利水电技术（中英文）2023，Vol.54Issue(12)：64-74,11.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2023.12.006
福建省暴雨时空演变规律与洪涝灾害脆弱性曲线研究
Study on the temporal and spatial evolution law of extreme rainstorm and the vulnerability curve of flood disaster in Fujian Province
摘要
Abstract
Increasing frequent extreme weather has led to serious floods around the world.The southeast coastal regions of China have been affected by floods for a long time with an increasing risk.In view of this,the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainstorm,the disaster-causing factor of flood disaster in Fujian Province were systematically analyzed.The vulnerability curve of rainstorm-flood disaster was constructed to provide a scientific support and reference for the disaster assessment of flood disaster in Fujian Province.Based on the daily precipitation data of 22 national meteorological stations from 1960 to 2020 and the flood disaster data of Fujian Province from 1950 to 2020,the spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics of extreme precipitation in Fujian Province were analyzed by using trend fitting,Mann-Kendall trend analysis and mutation test.The multiple regression linear model was used to fit the extreme precipitation and disaster indicators such as agriculture,population and economy for con-structing the vulnerability curve of flood disaster.The results indicate that the spatial-temporal distribution of extreme precipitati-on in Fujian Province is uneven and the frequency of extreme precipitation is increasing.The trends of flood disaster losses in ag-riculture,population,and economy are different.The optimal multiple linear regression model is:the ratio of disaster area to cul-tivation area(agricultural disaster area loss rate)=0.001 × total annual precipitation+0.002 × annual extremely heavy rain-storm precipitation-0.107.The agricultural affected area,disaster area and direct economic loss of flood disaster in Fujian Prov-ince are generally increasing,while affected population and death of population are decreasing.This trends are closely related to the increasing ability of disaster prevention and mitigation.The vulnerability curve could provide a scientific reference for future flood disaster assessment and disaster prevention planning.关键词
暴雨/洪涝/灾情/脆弱性/福建/降水/时空变化/气候变化Key words
rainstorm/flood/disaster/vulnerability/Fujian/precipitation/temporal and spatial changes/climate change分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
喻婷婷,万金红,高路..福建省暴雨时空演变规律与洪涝灾害脆弱性曲线研究[J].水利水电技术（中英文）,2023,54(12):64-74,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42271030) （42271030）
福建省科技厅杰青项目(2022J06018) （2022J06018）
2021年福建师范大学大学生创新创业训练计划(创新训练类)项目(cxxl—2021403) （创新训练类）
福建省自然资源科技创新项目(KY-110000-04-2021-005) （KY-110000-04-2021-005）
