水利水电技术（中英文）2023，Vol.54Issue(12)：75-92,18.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2023.12.007
1978-2012年长江三角洲城市群极端小时降水时空变化特征
Spatio-temporal changes of extreme hourly precipitation in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration during 1978-2012
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]In the context of global warming and rapid urbanization,extreme precipitation events occur frequently,po-sing great challenges to sustainable economic and social development,especially for these urban agglomerations or metropolitan areas.In order to further evaluate the spatiotemporal variations of extreme hourly precipitation in Yangtze River Delta urban ag-glomeration,[Methods]using hourly precipitation data from 135 meteorological stations during 1978-2012,five extreme hourly precipitation indicators were selected,including maximum 1-hour precipitation(Rx1hr),hourly precipitation exceeding 95％and 99％thresholds(R95pw1hr and R99pw1hr),and hourly precipitation frequency exceeding 10 mm and 20 mm(R1hr10 mm and R1hr20 mm).The moving average method and EOF decomposition method were used to analyze the changes in hourly precipitati-on in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.[Results]The result show that:(1)All extreme hourly precipitation indica-tors except for R1hr10 mm show a significantly upward trend at a 95％significance level.(2)Spatially,there are more extreme hourly precipitation in the southeast and less in the northwest.The stations with significant increase in extreme hourly precipitati-on are mainly in southern Jiangsu;(3)The peak-value of extreme hourly precipitation is mainly concentrated in Beijing Standard Time 12:00～18:00,accounting for 68.1％～79.3％;(4)Extreme hourly precipitation is mainly divided into three expressions:regional consistent,positive negative reverse and central.The first mode of Rx1hr,R95pw1hr,R1hr10 mm and R1hr20 mm has high consistency,which belongs to regional consistent mode,while the other modes belong to positive negative reverse and central modes.[Conclusion]Overall,the extreme precipitation events in Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration have a significantly increasing trend during 1978-2012.The spatial pattern of extreme hourly precipitation is correlated with the topography and ur-banization.Urbanization has a certain promoting effect on extreme hourly precipitation,and its impact on urban stations is slightly greater than that on rural stations.This research is helpful to scientifically understand the evolution of extreme precipitation in Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations,and provides reference for disaster prevention and mitigation,urban planning,and water resources management.关键词
长江三角洲城市群/极端小时降水/时空演变/经验正交分解/城市化/气候变化/降水/ 时空分布Key words
Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration/extreme hourly precipitation/spatiotemporal evolution/empirical orthog-onal function decomposition/urbanization/climate change/precipitation/spatiotemporal distribution分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
戚佳晨,宋晓猛..1978-2012年长江三角洲城市群极端小时降水时空变化特征[J].水利水电技术（中英文）,2023,54(12):75-92,18.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51979271) （51979271）
江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20211247) （BK20211247）
