畜牧与兽医2024，Vol.56Issue(2)：98-103,6.
2021-2022年赤羽病通过牛羊调运传入山东省的定量风险评估研究
Quantitative risk assessment of Akabane disease introduced into Shandong Province through the transport of cattle and sheep from 2021 to 2022
摘要
Abstract
To analyze and evaluate the risk of Akabane disease being introduced into Shandong Province through the transfer of cattle and sheep,we collected and organized the data on the transfer route,source province,transfer quantity,and batches of live cattle and sheep transferred into Shandong Province from 2021 to 2022.Using the"scenario tree"method for simulation analysis,we established a stochastic model to assess the introduction risk.The findings were that the risk of AKAV infection was 0.015 5(95％CI:0.011 8-0.022 8)in trans-ferred sheep and 0.033 8(95％CI:0.022 5-0.049 3)in transferred cattle from other provinces.These results highlighted the significance of considering the risk of Akabane disease being introduced into Shandong Province through the transportation of cattle and sheep.It would be important that we raise the pathogen detection rate of the animals during origin quarantine before transfer and implement rigorous quarantine measures upon arrival so as to more effectively reduce the risk of Akabane disease being introduced.This study might serve as valuable refer-ence for minimizing the risk of Akabane disease introduction into Shandong Province.关键词
赤羽病/定量风险评估/调运/隔离检疫Key words
Akabane disease/quantitative risk assessment/transport/quarantine分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
李超,沈朝建,魏玉荣,张祯涛,王玉英,张毅,何微,黄克和,薛峰..2021-2022年赤羽病通过牛羊调运传入山东省的定量风险评估研究[J].畜牧与兽医,2024,56(2):98-103,6.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFD1800500) （2021YFD1800500）
新疆动物疫病研究重点实验室开放课题项目(2023KLA004) （2023KLA004）
