Progress and future prospects of decadal prediction and data assimilation:A reviewOA
年代际预测,也称为“近期气候预测”,旨在预测未来1-10年内的气候变化,是气候预测和气候变化研究领域的一个新关注点.它位于季节至年际预测和长期气候变化预测之间,结合了初值问题和外部强迫问题的两个方面.年代际预测的核心技术在于用于模式初始化的同化方法的准确性和效率,其目标是为模式提供准确的初始条件,其中包含观测到的气候系统内部变率,年代际预测的初始化通常涉及在耦合框架内同化海洋观测,其中观测到的信号通过耦合过程传递到其他分量,如大气和海冰.然而,最近的研究越来越关注在海洋-大气耦合模式中探索耦合数据同化(CDA),有人认为CDA有潜力显著提高年代际预测技巧.本文综合评述了该领域的三个方面的研究现状:初始化方法,年代际气候预测的可预测性和预测技巧,以及年代际预测的未来发展和挑战.
Wen Zhou;Jinxiao Li;Zixiang Yan;Zili Shen;Bo Wu;Bin Wang;Ronghua Zhang;Zhijin Li;
Key Laboratory of Polar Atmosphere-ocean-ice System for Weather and Climate of the MOE,Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science&Institute of Atmospheric Science,Fudan University,Shanghai,China Key Laboratory for Polar Science of the MNR,Polar Research Institute of China,Shanghai,ChinaKey Laboratory of Polar Atmosphere-ocean-ice System for Weather and Climate of the MOE,Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science&Institute of Atmospheric Science,Fudan University,Shanghai,China Shanghai Investigation,Design and Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai,ChinaKey Laboratory of Polar Atmosphere-ocean-ice System for Weather and Climate of the MOE,Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science&Institute of Atmospheric Science,Fudan University,Shanghai,ChinaLASG,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,ChinaSchool of Marine Science,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing,China
海洋学
年代际预测四维数据同化海气相互作用
《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 2024 (001)
P.53-62 / 10
supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[Grant Nos.42192563 and 42120104001].
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