航空科学技术2024，Vol.35Issue(2)：112-118,7.DOI:10.19452/j.issn1007-5453.2024.02.014
航空器导航系统飞参预测置信度评价方法研究
Research on Confidence Evaluation Method of Flight Parameter Prediction in Aircraft Navigation System
摘要
Abstract
To enhance the safety performance of aircraft,a confidence assessment process based on predictive modeling is proposed to quantify the uncertainty in flight parameter prediction.A convolutional neural network was employed to develop a prediction algorithm for flight parameter data in aircraft navigation systems.The selected flight parameter data was preprocessed and trained to achieve high-precision target parameter prediction.The modeling process incorporated both epistemic uncertainty in model construction and aleatoric uncertainty in the data by using ensemble methods to capture epistemic uncertainty and employing a dual-head network to capture aleatoric uncertainty.Based on this,a multi-source uncertainty model was constructed to evaluate the confidence of the flight parameter prediction model.Experimental testing,including the introduction of noise into normal flight parameter data to simulate real-world conditions,demonstrates that the proposed confidence assessment method effectively represents the accuracy of the flight parameter prediction results,and improves the safety and reliability of aircraft flight decision-making process.关键词
航空器/飞行参数/神经网络/不确定性分析/置信度Key words
aircraft/flight parameter/neural networks/uncertainty analysis/confidence分类
航空航天引用本文复制引用
黄梦婵,钟杰,苗强..航空器导航系统飞参预测置信度评价方法研究[J].航空科学技术,2024,35(2):112-118,7.基金项目
航空科学基金(201905019001)Aeronautical Science Foundation of China(201905019001) （201905019001）
