水利水电技术（中英文）2024，Vol.55Issue(1)：62-73,12.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2024.01.006
安徽省极端降水演变规律及与气候因子遥相关研究
Spatio-temporal evolution of extreme precipitation and their teleconnection with climate factors in Anhui Province
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events due to global warming are increasing signifi-cantly.Regional floods and urban waterlogging disasters caused by heavy precipitation have brought serious losses to the ecologi-cal environment and social economy.In 2020,Anhui Province has been affected by the long duration and heavy rainfall of the su-per-strong Meiyu precipitation process,causing floods in all rivers basin in Anhui Province.[Methods]In this study,we have used the observed precipitation data and ERA5 reanalysis data to calculation extreme precipitation index,explored the temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation,and analyzed its teleconnection relationship with climatic factors.[Results]The result show that the average PRCPTOT increased by 9.0 mm and 8.0 mm per decade in June and July from 1960 to 2020.In the four precipitation events with the largest impact during the Meiyu period in 2020,the number of meteorological stations with precipitation exceeding 100 mm accounted for more than 34％.Moreover,average June-July precipitation in Anhui Province in 2020(900.56mm)reached a record high,1.9 times and 1.5 times higher than in 1998 and 2016.Besides,rainfall intensity(25.37 mm/d)was 1.2 and 1.1 times higher than in 2016 and 1998,and 1.4 times higher than the historical average.[Conclusion]The result show that(1)the extreme precipitation has a significantly increasing trend in the main flood season in Anhui Province,and the center is located in the south of the Yangtze River.The heavy precipitation in 2020,occur at night and early morning,is mainly distributed along the Yangtze River and in the mountainous areas of southern Anhui.While the precipi-tation in the northern part of Anhui occur in the afternoon(15:00).(2)Compared with 1998 and 2016,PRCPTOT,R10,R25 and CWD in 2020 have increased significantly.Under the same rainfall intensity,the heavy precipitation in June-July 2020 is mainly attributed to the significant increase of R25 and CWD.(3)The positive correlation between the extreme precipitation index and PDO in June-July in Anhui Province is highest on the lagged 3-month scale.While the positive correlation between the extreme precipitation index and climate factors is not significant on the lagged 6-month scale.Besides,there is a significant posi-tive(negative)correlation between the extreme precipitation index and SOI at the lagged 1-month(6-month)scale.关键词
极端降水/时空特征/气候因子/遥相关/安徽省/气候变化/降雨Key words
extreme precipitation/spatial-temporal characteristics/climate factors/teleconnection/Anhui Province/climate change/rainfall分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
姚蕊,杨惠琳,张书亮,苑倩玉,于世芳..安徽省极端降水演变规律及与气候因子遥相关研究[J].水利水电技术（中英文）,2024,55(1):62-73,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(42271483,4207136) （42271483,4207136）
北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室2021年开放课题 （）
安徽省自然科学基金优青项目(2108085Y13) （2108085Y13）
安徽省重点研究与开发计划项目(2022m07020011,2021003) （2022m07020011,2021003）
安徽高校协同创新资助项目(GXXT-2021-048) （GXXT-2021-048）
