1961-2020年新疆棉花花铃期高温热害时空变化特征OA北大核心CSTPCD

In order to clarify the spatial and temporal distribution and change trend of cotton meteorological disasters in Xinjiang,based on the daily surface meteorological observation data of 101 meteorological stations,disaster data and cotton production data in Xinjiang cotton planting area from 1961 to 2020,the high temperature heat damage index of cotton flowering and boll-forming period in Xinjiang was selected.The linear trend analysis,spatial interpolation analysis and M-K trend analysis were used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution and variation characteristics of the frequency and intensity of high temperature heat damage at cotton flowering and boll-forming period in Xinjiang from the decadal,interannual and pentad scales.The results showed that:1)The high temperature damage of cotton in Xinjiang was mainly severe,followed by moderate.The frequency of high temperature damage in each grade was high in the south and low in the north.The high value areas were concentrated in Hotan Area,Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture,Turpan Ctiy and Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture.2)From 1961 to 2020,the station proportion,number of days and hazardous heat accumulation temperature of high temperature heat damage of cotton in Xinjiang showed an increasing trend.The trend rate of station proportion in southern and northern Xinjiang was 2.2％and 1.6％per 10 years,and the hazardous heat accumulation temperature changed by 1.7 and 1.9℃·d per 10 years,respectively.High temperature damage was the most serious in the 2010s.3)From July 1st pentad to September 3rd pentad,the station proportion and occurrence frequency of high temperature heat damage in Xinjiang cotton increased first and then decreased with the passage of pentad sequence,and the occurrence frequency of high temperature heat damage was higher from July 4th pentad to August 1st pentad.Compared with period Ⅰ and period Ⅱ,the pentad sequence with the largest ratio of stations in period Ⅱ tends to advance.The pentad sequence with the largest ratio of stations in northern Xinjiang is advanced from August 1st pentad(29.2％)to July 3rd pentad(31.6％),and that in southern Xinjiang is advanced from July 6th pentad(28.9％)to July 4th pentad(33.2％).