长江流域主产区农业集聚对农业面源污染的影响OA北大核心CSTPCD

In order to investigate the impact of agricultural agglomeration on agricultural non-point source pollution,based on the socio-economic and agricultural production data from 2000 to 2020,the agricultural agglomeration and agricultural non-point source pollution in the main producing areas of the Yangtze River basin as a whole and in each prefectural-level cities were measured and their spatial and temporal trends were analyzed.A panel threshold model was used to investigate the nonlinear impact effect of agricultural agglomeration on agricultural non-point source pollution The results showed that:The overall trend of agricultural agglomeration in the upper,middle and lower basin was decreasing,which was lower basin＞middle basin＞upper basin in descending order;The upper basin and lower basin agricultural non-point source pollution did not undergo large fluctuations,but the middle basin showed an upward and then downward trend,which was middle basin＞lower basin＞upper basin in descending order.There was a positive single-threshold effect of agricultural agglomeration on agricultural non-point source pollution,and the value of the threshold effect of the lagged term of agricultural agglomeration has decreased.Subregionally,the upper basin and middle basin agricultural agglomeration exacerbated agricultural non-point source pollution emissions regardless of less than or greater than the threshold value.After crossing the threshold,the facilitating effect of the upper basin weakened and that of the middle basin increased,there was a shift from negative to positive in the threshold effect in the lower basin.In addition,the agricultural production conditions,the size of the agricultural population,and the structure of the livestock and poultry industry exacerbated the emission of agricultural non-point source pollution.However,the upgrading of the industrial structure and the increase in the intensity of environmental regulation reduced the emission of agricultural non-point source pollution.In order to promote the green and sustainable development of regional agriculture,it is recommended to further promote the application of modern agricultural green production technology,regulate the production and management behavior of livestock and poultry farmers,and build a synergistic governance system with the participation of the government,farmers,and social organizations.