中国农业大学学报2024，Vol.29Issue(3)：241-259,19.DOI:10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2024.03.21
中国—东盟自由贸易区的农产品贸易效应
The agricultural-trade effect of China and ASEAN under CAFTA:An empirical evaluation based on synthetic control method
摘要
Abstract
This study expands the classical model of the Free Trade Area(FTA)and designs the theoretical framework for analyzing the trade effects of agricultural products in the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area(CAFTA)from the perspectives of the great power trade model,tariff differences,and complementarity among trade products.The synthetic control method is utilized to evaluate the trade effects of agricultural products by taking China-ASEAN as a whole and for each member country of ASEAN during the period from 1995 to 2020.The results show that:Firstly,the implementation of CAFTA had a significant impact on the agricultural products between China and ASEAN.The growth of agricultural product trade between China and ASEAN mainly comes from the trade creation effect rather than trade diversion effects.Secondly,with the gradual reduction of bilateral tariffs,both the import and export effects of agricultural products between China and ASEAN have shown a trend of gradual expansion.Thirdly,CAFTA displayed a heterogeneous impact on the trade effects of agricultural products between different ASEAN countries and China.The greater the complementarity and openness is,the larger the trade creation effects in bilateral agricultural trade will be.Therefore,implementing a higher-level FTA strategy is beneficial for further expanding China's import and export channels for agricultural products and improving the economic welfare of society.关键词
中国—东盟自由贸易区/农产品贸易效应/合成控制法/贸易创造效应/贸易转移效应Key words
China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement/agricultural trade effect/synthesis control method/trade creation effect/trade diversion effect分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
谭砚文,李丛希,曾华盛,陈丽如..中国—东盟自由贸易区的农产品贸易效应[J].中国农业大学学报,2024,29(3):241-259,19.基金项目
国家自然科学基金国际合作项目(71961147002) （71961147002）
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(22YJC790006) （22YJC790006）
