中国农业大学学报2024，Vol.29Issue(4)：184-194,11.DOI:10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2024.04.16
设施栽培条件下月季灰霉病预测模型的建立及应用
Establishment and application of a prediction model for gray mold disease in protected cultivation of cut rose
摘要
Abstract
To effectively prevent the occurrence of gray mold disease in cut rose flowers and guarantee their postharvest quality after harvesting,'Vuvuzela'and'Avalanche'were used as experimental materials to conduct an on-site investigation on the incidence of gray mold in the facility,monitor temperature and humidity inside the facility,obtain rainfall data from local meteorological stations,and construct a prediction model for gray mold disease in the production of rose cut flower facility.The results showed that:.1)Disease index of'Vuvuzela'and'Avalanche'was linearly correlated with the average temperature and humidity inside greenhouse.Based on this,a prediction model of gray mold was established,Y=4.761-0.332X1+4.930X2+0.015X3.The prediction model was validated through on-side measurements,with an average absolute error(MAE)of 0.20 and an average absolute percentage error(MAPE)of 0.31.Therefore,the prediction model can effectively predict the incidence of gray mold in protected cultivation of cut rose within 7 days.2)Gray mold incidences of'Vuvuzela'and'Avalanche'during storage and vase period were positively correlated with predicted value of disease index in cultivation.When prediction value of disease index was Y=0.33,the gray mold incidence of cut flowers was less than 5.0％ after 1 day of simulated transportation and 5 d of cold storage.whereas,when prediction value of disease index was a high predictive value of Y=2.09,the gray mold incidence of cut flowers could reach 35.0％ after cold storage.3)Early prevention and control measures were taken by spraying pesticides three days before the outbreak of the disease in the prediction model.The disease index on the day of harvesting decreased from 2.33 to 1.05,indicating a moderated risk level;the incidence rate of gray mold during vase period reduced from 30.0％ to 10.0％.In conclusion,using this prediction model for early prevention and control can prevent the spread of disease in advance,providing support for the monitoring and scientific control of rose fungal disease.关键词
月季切花/温室生产/灰霉病/监测/防治Key words
cut rose/protected production/gray mold/monitoring/prevention分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
李垚,蔡世熊,张肇鹏,徐扬,王志军,马男,徐彦杰,高俊平..设施栽培条件下月季灰霉病预测模型的建立及应用[J].中国农业大学学报,2024,29(4):184-194,11.基金项目
科技部重点基础研究专项(2018YFD1000400) （2018YFD1000400）
