中国农业大学学报2024，Vol.29Issue(4)：274-287,14.DOI:10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2024.04.24
基于系统动力学模型的内蒙古水资源承载力及其影响因素
Water resources carrying capacity of Inner Mongolia under different scenarios and its influential factors based on a system dynamics model
摘要
Abstract
In order to scientifically measure regional water resources carrying capacity and study sustainable utilization of water resources,Inner Mongolia Region was taken as the case and the modeling platform of Vensim was used to construct a regional water resources supply and demand system based on system dynamics theory.Considering resources,environment and economy,this study simulated four scenarios,namely,the quo scenario,economic development scenario,saving and green low-carbon scenario,technological innovation scenario from 2020 to 2025.AHP and entropy weight combinational method were adopted to predict the water resources carrying capacity index value and identified factors affecting water resource carrying capacity through sensitivity analysis.The results showed that:1)The technological innovation scenario effectively decreased industrial and domestic water demand with a total water consumption of 21.693 billion m3.The saving and green low-carbon scenario mainly saved agricultural and domestic water with a total water consumption of 21.701 billion m3.The quo scenario had a total water consumption of 22.026 billion m3,while the economic development scenario had the largest water resource consumption with a total water consumption of 22.575 billion m3.2)The water resource carrying capacity index under technological innovation scenario was the highest,which was an important development direction in the field of water resource utilization in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.The saving and green low-carbon scenario as well as quo scenario took next places.The index of the economic development scenario was the lowest and the utilization of water resources was unsustainable.3)The main factors affecting water resource carrying capacity were power generation,precipitation,planting area of various crops and green planting.The main reasons were the small proportion of non-fossil energy power generation,the wide scale of crop planting industry,the high water consumption per unit area for crop and the high water demand for green planting.Therefore,the optimization of energy utilization structure,water-saving in planting,water reprocessing and other technological innovations as well as low-carbon conservation measures are effective to improve the carrying capacity of water resources in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.关键词
水资源承载力/系统动力学模型/情景模拟/影响因素/内蒙古自治区Key words
water resources carrying capacity/system dynamics model/scenario simulation/factors/Inner Mongolia Autonomas Region分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
张宇冕,夏唯一,骆玉川,陆梦娜,黄霖沛..基于系统动力学模型的内蒙古水资源承载力及其影响因素[J].中国农业大学学报,2024,29(4):274-287,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41991230) （41991230）
科技兴蒙项目(NMKJXM202109) （NMKJXM202109）
