华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）2024，Vol.45Issue(2)：59-72,14.DOI:10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2024018
深圳市极端降水时空演变特征分析
Analysis of Spatio-temporal Evolution Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation in Shenzhen
摘要
Abstract
At present,there are many researches on precipitation in Shenzhen,but relatively few researches on the charac-teristics of extreme precipitation.Based on the precipitation data in China Meteorological Forcing from 1979 to 2018,this paper analyzes the changing characteristics of the spatial and temporal distribution of extreme precipitation in Shenzhen in the past four decades in terms of precipitation amount and intensity by combining the extreme precipitation indicators with the Mann-Kendall trend analysis method,Sen's slope method,and wavelet analysis method.The results are as follows.Firstly,the extreme precipitation in Shenzhen was greater in the south than in the north,and the upward trend in the west was higher than that in the east.The locations of high-risk areas of extreme precipitation tend to be concentrated with the urbanization process,and are the most stable in Futian and Luohu districts.Secondly,the monthly average number of storm days and monthly maximum daily precipitation in the extreme precipitation high-risk area showed an increasing trend in each decade,especially in the 1990s.Thirdly,the annual precipitation in areas at high risk of extreme precipitation shows a de-creasing trend,with oscillating cycles of 6 to 8 years and 1 to 2 years before and after.The number of days of heavy rainfall per year is stable and decreasing between 3 and 19 days,while the annual maximum daily precipitation is increasing.Sea-sonal precipitation is relatively stable,with obvious oscillation cycles except for winter precipitation.The results of this pa-per can provide a reference for further accurate assessment of extreme precipitation risk,formulation of flood prevention pol-icies and better urban planning in Shenzhen.关键词
极端降水/时空演变/振荡周期/城市化/深圳市Key words
extreme precipitation/spatial and temporal evolution/oscillation period/urbanization/Shenzhen city分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
王俊阳,史海匀..深圳市极端降水时空演变特征分析[J].华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）,2024,45(2):59-72,14.基金项目
深圳市自然科学基金项目(JCYJ20210324105014039) （JCYJ20210324105014039）
深圳市城市环境健康风险精准测量与预警技术重点项目(ZDSYS20220606100604008). （ZDSYS20220606100604008）
