华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）2024，Vol.45Issue(2)：25-35,11.DOI:10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2024015
基于半偏联系数和动态差异度系数的区域旱灾风险评估方法
A Regional Drought Risk Assessment Method Based on Semi-partial Correlation Coefficient and Dynamic Difference Coefficient
摘要
Abstract
In order to evaluate the regional drought risk objectively and accurately,the transfer rate matrix of quaternion connection numbers is constructed based on the idea of semi-partial linkages,which is used to correct the quaternion con-nection number components.At the same time,a method for calculating the difference coefficient that varies with the chan-ges in sample indicators was proposed,and the difference coefficient in the quaternion connection number was calculated.A regional drought risk assessment method based on semi partial connection coefficient and dynamic difference coefficient was constructed.The results of the application in Bozhou City show that the risk subsystem in the drought risk system of Bozhou City from 2008 to 2020 is basically in two states of light and medium risk,of which water resource possession per unit area and soil type are the vulnerability indicators.The exposure subsystem is at both light and medium risk from 2008 to 2020,with population density and arable land ratio as indicators of vulnerability.The disaster loss sensitivity subsystem is basically in a minimally hazardous state from 2008 to 2020,with the proportion of the population in agriculture as a vul-nerability indicator.The drought resistance subsystem was in a medium risk state from 2008 to 2020,with reservoir regula-tion and storage rate,current water supply capacity per unit area,emergency watering capacity per unit area,and water-saving irrigation rate being vulnerability indicators.From 2008 to 2020,the annual comprehensive system of drought risk in Bozhou City is in the state of light risk and medium risk,and the overall trend of change is from medium risk to light risk.In this paper,the evaluation results of the linked numerical method and the semi-partial subtractive set of potential methods are basically consistent,and the calculation results of the connection numerical method are more robust and reliable,which has the prospect of popularization and application.关键词
旱灾风险评估/半偏联系数/联系数分量/动态差异度系数Key words
drought risk assessment/semi-partial coupling coefficient/connection number component/dynamic difference coef-ficient分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
陈浩,金菊良,崔毅,张诗懿,周亮广,刘凌,蒋尚明..基于半偏联系数和动态差异度系数的区域旱灾风险评估方法[J].华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）,2024,45(2):25-35,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52109009,U2240223) （52109009,U2240223）
安徽省自然科学基金项目(2208085US03,2108085QE254). （2208085US03,2108085QE254）
