金融理论与教学2024，Vol.42Issue(1)：22-29,45,9.
结合存流量观点看汇率与国内经济的关系
The Relationship Between Exchange Rate and Domestic Economy from the Perspective of Stock and Flow:Based on Grey Relation Analysis
摘要
Abstract
Based on the exchange rate flow theory focusing on short-term benefits,the study uses the grey correlation model to explore the interaction between variables and the exchange rate,and compares the interaction between the exchange rate and various factors of the domestic economy,so as to overcome the shortcomings of the balance of payments theory in the relationship between various factors.At the same time,the study analyzes the relationship between RMB exchange rate and China's macro-economy in recent years by combining the stock theory of exchange rate in long-term effect analysis and the view of stock and flow.It is found that the RMB exchange rate has a strong correlation with domestic interest rate and price level,and an extremely strong correlation with interest rate,while the exchange rate has a moderate correlation with national income.Therefore,it is advisable to make good use of China's low inflation environment,and the policy of interest rate and exchange rate should be combined to promote China's steady economic recovery and improve trade balance.Meanwhile,in the current increasingly complex international relations,the potential or indirect influence of international trade and foreign investment under the effect of exchange rate on national income and economic development cannot be ignored.关键词
汇率决定论/宏观经济/灰色关联度模型/国际金融/国际收支说Key words
exchange rate determination theory/macro-economy/grey correlation model/international finance/balance of payments theory分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
陈淼,林正..结合存流量观点看汇率与国内经济的关系[J].金融理论与教学,2024,42(1):22-29,45,9.基金项目
2021年国家社科基金项目"生命周期视角下经济政策不确定性影响企业投资的机制、效应与对策研究"(21BJ105) （21BJ105）
2023年广东省自然科学基金项目"粤港澳大湾区数字经济融合影响税收遵从行为微观机制的仿真模拟研究"(2023A1515012398) （2023A1515012398）
2023广东省社科共建项目"数字经济背景下粤港澳大湾区参与国际数字税竞合治理的经验研究"(GD23XYJ09). （GD23XYJ09）
