人民珠江2024，Vol.45Issue(2)：105-115,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2024.02.014
基于不同选样方法的雨潮遭遇风险分析
Encounter Risk Analysis of Rainstorm and Tide Base on Different Sampling Method
摘要
Abstract
Waterlogging disaster in tide-affected area usually occurs under the influence of rainstorm and tide level.In the process of risk analysis of rainstorm and tide level,different sample methods will affect the risk probability results.Taking Zhong-Zhu union catchment as an example,based on annual maximum series sampling method and peak over threshold sampling method combined with Copula function,the risk analysis results indicate that:①Sample data obtained based on peak over threshold sampling method has a larger sample size,which contains more rainstorm events than sample data obtained based on annual maximum series sampling method,and these rainstorm events tend to encounter high tide;②On the basis of containing more effective sample information,the frequency analysis results obtained by peak over threshold sampling method are more accurate and with much more security from the perspective of waterlogged drainage;③The joint distribution of rainstorm and tide based on peak over threshold sampling method showed a better fitting degree,and the probability of encountering unexpected events is larger as a result of annual maximal series sampling method omitted some effective sample information.关键词
雨潮遭遇/风险分析/年最值选样/超阈值选样/Copula函数/中珠联围Key words
encounter of rainstorm and tide/risk analysis/annual maximal series sampling method/peak over threshold sampling method/Copula function/Zhong-Zhu union catchment分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
王尚伟,刘曾美..基于不同选样方法的雨潮遭遇风险分析[J].人民珠江,2024,45(2):105-115,11.基金项目
广东省水利科技创新项目(2016-27) （2016-27）
