气象科学2023，Vol.43Issue(6)：723-735,13.DOI:10.12306/2023jms.0041
CMIP6-WACCM模式对北半球反气旋型Rossby波破碎趋势的预估
Projection of the trend of anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking in the Northern Hemisphere by CMIP6-WACCM
摘要
Abstract
By using daily data from the CESM2-WACCM model in CMIP6,the spatial distribution,occurrence frequency,horizontal scale,symmetric structure,and long-term trend of Anticyclonic Rossby Wave Breaking(AWB)near the tropopause in the Northern Hemisphere under three different emission scenarios:SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5 from 2020 to 2099 were projected.Overall,AWB is projected to occupy two high-frequency areas in the North Pacific and North Atlantic for all four seasons.The frequency of AWB occurrences in the North Pacific during summer is significantly higher than that in the North Atlantic,while the opposite is observed in the other three seasons.Within the two high frequency areas,symmetric transport is usually dominant for AWB material transport under the three different scenarios.However,in the North Pacific region,AWB material transport during winter,spring,and autumn tends to be poleward in the SSP2-4.5 scenario,while during summer in the North Atlantic region,AWB material transport tends to be equatorward in the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.There is a decreasing trend in AWB occurrence frequency,horizontal scale,and poleward transport in both high frequency areas for all seasons,with a more significant decrease in the larger greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,the total area of AWB occurrence in the North Pacific during summer is projected to decrease at a rate of-365.5 standardized 1°×1° grid cells per decade.This decrease is due to a combination of AWB average scale decreasing at a rate of 2.7 standardized grid cells/decade and the frequency decreasing at a rate of 1.9 events/decade.The trend of poleward transport rate in the North Pacific is-0.016 5/decade.The trend of AWB occurrence frequency in the North Atlantic during autumn is-2.3/decade,resulting in a total area decrease rate of 440.4 standardized grid cells/decade.关键词
反气旋型Rossby波破碎/CMIP6/WACCM模式/预估Key words
AWB/CMIP6/WACCM model/projection分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李瑶瑶,施春华,郭栋..CMIP6-WACCM模式对北半球反气旋型Rossby波破碎趋势的预估[J].气象科学,2023,43(6):723-735,13.基金项目
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2022YFF0801703) （2022YFF0801703）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41875048) （41875048）
