生态科学2023，Vol.42Issue(6)：11-18,8.DOI:10.14108/j.cnki.1008-8873.2023.06.002
基于混合演化算法模型的岱海湖泊叶绿素a模拟及预测
Simulation and prediction of chlorophyll-a in Daihai lake by Hybrid Evolutionary Algorithm
摘要
Abstract
Based on the monitoring survey data from 2013 to 2017 in Daihai lake,we analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of chlorophyll-a,then used the Hybrid Evolutionary Algorithm model for the simulation and prediction of chlorophyll-a concentration was established to quantitatively reveal and predict the relationship between the change of chlorophyll-a concentration and environmental factors by combining ecological threshold and sensitivity analysis.The results showed that:(1)The eutrophication degree of Daihai had seasonal differences,showing that the average in spring was significantly higher than the average in summer and average in autumn,but there was no significant difference in spatial change.(2)The best model prediction value of the Hybrid Evolutionary Algorithm model had a high degree of fit with the actual monitoring value(R2 = 0.95)based on the hybrid evolutionary algorithm model in Daihai Lake.(3)The optimal rule set of hybrid evolutionary algorithm showed that,when the COD was greater than 172.049 mg·L-1 and the water temperature was in the range of 13.97-20.36℃,the concentration of chlorophyll-a decreased with the increase of water temperature,and pH and water depth were positively correlated with the concentration of chlorophyll-a.On the contrary,chlorophyll-a concentration was negatively correlated with total nitrogen and water depth.It is further proved that the Hybrid Evolutionary Algorithm model can simulate and predict the changes of chlorophyll-a concentration in the lake,identify and quantify the ecological relationship between lake eutrophication and environmental factors and the threshold data,which can provide a certain theoretical basis and technical support for the prediction and early warning of algae bloom in arid and semi-arid inland lakes.关键词
岱海/叶绿素a浓度/混合演化算法(HEA)/生态阈值Key words
Daihai Lake/chlorophyll-a/HEA/ecological threshold分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
刘旭华,寇欣,徐智超,于晓雯,曹晓霭,刘华民,温璐,刘东伟,王立新..基于混合演化算法模型的岱海湖泊叶绿素a模拟及预测[J].生态科学,2023,42(6):11-18,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(32160279,32161143025,31960249) （32160279,32161143025,31960249）
内蒙古科技专项项目(2022YFHH0017,2021ZD0011,ZDZX2018054) （2022YFHH0017,2021ZD0011,ZDZX2018054）
鄂尔多斯科技项目(2022EEDSKJZDZX010,2022EEDSKJXM005) （2022EEDSKJZDZX010,2022EEDSKJXM005）
