生态科学2023，Vol.42Issue(6)：177-186,10.DOI:10.14108/j.cnki.1008-8873.2023.06.019
基于DIVA-GIS和MaxEnt的我国枇杷适生区预测和生态适宜性研究
Prediction and ecological suitability of Eriobotrya japonica in China based on Diva-GIS and MaxEnt
摘要
Abstract
Eriobotrya japonica is an important ornamental flowera and an important economic fruit tree native to China in autumn and winter,but the survival status of its wild population is not optimistic.Based on 320 effective natural distribution points in China and 19 bioclimatic variables in different time periods,the distribution of potential suitable areas of Eriobotrya japonica was predicted and analyzed based on the DIVA-GIS and MaxEnt,and the predicted results were tested and evaluated by ROC curve.In addition,the influencing factors of its distribution of potential suitable areas were evaluated by Jackknife Method.The results showed that the potential suitable range of Eriobotrya japonica were mainly concentrated in southern provinces and a few northern provinces such as Shandong and Shaanxi.The ROC curve test of Diva GIS and the AUC evaluation of MaxEnt showed that the prediction result reached high precision.Through analysis,the dry season precipitation,the dry month precipitation,the average annual precipitation,the lowest temperature in the coldest month and the seasonal variation of temperature were the decisive factor affecting the distribution of Eriobotrya japonica suitable areas.In the simulated environment of future climate change,the potential suitable range of Eriobotrya japonica will expand in the north-south direction,besides the overall area will decrease,and a few suitable areas are fragmented.关键词
枇杷/DIVS-GIS/MaxEnt模型/地理分布/生态适宜性Key words
Eriobotrya japonica/DIVS-GIS/MaxEnt model/geographical distribution/ecological suitability分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
孙芝倩,庞兴宸,施诗,陈梓宜,陈景锋,吴永彬..基于DIVA-GIS和MaxEnt的我国枇杷适生区预测和生态适宜性研究[J].生态科学,2023,42(6):177-186,10.基金项目
广东省林木种质资源调查项目支持项目(GDZZDC20228703) （GDZZDC20228703）
广东省财政厅项目(粤财资环[2021]15号) （粤财资环[2021]15号）
广东省土地调查规划院项目(GHYFW20200905) （GHYFW20200905）
