全球经济政策不确定性、人民币汇率与中国经济波动OACSTPCD

With the deepening of global economic integration,the uncertainty of global economic policies and the fluctuations of the renminbi exchange rate have increasingly significant impacts on the Chinese economy.From the perspective of asymmetric effects,this paper constructs a Mundell-Fleming model that incorporates global economic policy uncertainty,renminbi exchange rate,and economic volatility,and theoretically analyzes the mechanisms of their asymmetric effects.Empirical results show that in the short term,the suppressive effect of renminbi appreciation on the price level is greater than the promotional effect of depreciation,and in the long term,the suppressive effect of renminbi appreciation on economic growth is greater than the promotional effect of depreciation.In addition,regardless of the short term or long term,the reduction of global economic policy uncertainty has a greater promotional effect on the price level and economic growth than its upward suppressive effect.These results are robust to sensitivity analysis.Therefore,the central bank needs to strengthen its attention to the asymmetric effects of exchange rates and global economic policy uncertainty on the price level and economic growth in order to achieve stable operation of the Chinese economy.