重庆理工大学学报2024，Vol.38Issue(4)：53-73,21.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-8425(s).2024.02.005
全球经济政策不确定性、人民币汇率与中国经济波动
Global economic policy uncertainty,RMB exchange rate and China's economic fluctuations
摘要
Abstract
With the deepening of global economic integration,the uncertainty of global economic policies and the fluctuations of the renminbi exchange rate have increasingly significant impacts on the Chinese economy.From the perspective of asymmetric effects,this paper constructs a Mundell-Fleming model that incorporates global economic policy uncertainty,renminbi exchange rate,and economic volatility,and theoretically analyzes the mechanisms of their asymmetric effects.Empirical results show that in the short term,the suppressive effect of renminbi appreciation on the price level is greater than the promotional effect of depreciation,and in the long term,the suppressive effect of renminbi appreciation on economic growth is greater than the promotional effect of depreciation.In addition,regardless of the short term or long term,the reduction of global economic policy uncertainty has a greater promotional effect on the price level and economic growth than its upward suppressive effect.These results are robust to sensitivity analysis.Therefore,the central bank needs to strengthen its attention to the asymmetric effects of exchange rates and global economic policy uncertainty on the price level and economic growth in order to achieve stable operation of the Chinese economy.关键词
全球经济政策不确定性/人民币汇率/经济波动/人民币名义有效汇率/NARDL模型Key words
global economic policy uncertainty/RMB exchange rate/economic fluctuation/RMB nominal effective exchange rate/NARDL model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
姜伟,刘欣仪,李丹娜,高春兴..全球经济政策不确定性、人民币汇率与中国经济波动[J].重庆理工大学学报,2024,38(4):53-73,21.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目"促进实体经济高质量发展的金融结构优化与制度创新研究"(22&ZD117) （22&ZD117）
国家社会科学基金项目"货币政策通过影响信心实现稳增长的机理与对策研究"(20BJL020) （20BJL020）
