基于DEMATEL-AISM的铁路工程建设风险识别影响因素与优化策略研究OA北大核心CSTPCD

Under the development trend of large-scale,complex,and systematic railway engineering construction,the potential risk factors are becoming increasingly numerous,making its path toward high-quality and sustainable development full of challenges.As the primary step of risk management,risk identification is the key to dealing with and controlling the risk of railway engineering construction.It is affected by many factors inside and outside the project,and there is no systematic guidance in the existing practice,which leads to the risk identification work easy to be neglected.Therefore,the core influencing factors of railway engineering construction risk identification were extracted through literature research and factor analysis.Based on decision-making and experimental evaluation laboratory and interpretative structural model,an adversarial multi-level hierarchical structure model(DEMATEL-AISM)was built to calculate the importance of each influential factor and to clarify the coupling relationship between factors of railway engineering construction risk identification.The results show that the effect of risk identification in railway engineering construction is affected by a combination of three factors:direct layer,indirect layer,and root layer.Among them,hazard monitoring and analysis,personnel risk awareness,risk investigation measures,risk coping ability,railway construction objectives,expected risk consequences and risk identification technology are crucial factors affecting risk identification results,which should be focused on and controlled in the development of risk management of railway engineering.Based on the model results,the hierarchy and causality of risk identification factors were analyzed,and some suggestions and strategies for risk identification of railway engineering construction were put forward from three aspects:risk internal control,construction of project integration risk management system,and establishment of dynamic risk early warning mechanism.The research results are beneficial to improve the comprehensiveness and scientificalness of the risk identification results of large-scale railway engineering construction and have certain reference values and significance for establishing a railway engineering construction risk identification system.