铁道科学与工程学报2024，Vol.21Issue(2)：802-811,10.DOI:10.19713/j.cnki.43-1423/u.T20230507
基于DEMATEL-AISM的铁路工程建设风险识别影响因素与优化策略研究
Research on influencing factors and optimization strategy of railway construction risk identification based on DEMATEL-AISM
摘要
Abstract
Under the development trend of large-scale,complex,and systematic railway engineering construction,the potential risk factors are becoming increasingly numerous,making its path toward high-quality and sustainable development full of challenges.As the primary step of risk management,risk identification is the key to dealing with and controlling the risk of railway engineering construction.It is affected by many factors inside and outside the project,and there is no systematic guidance in the existing practice,which leads to the risk identification work easy to be neglected.Therefore,the core influencing factors of railway engineering construction risk identification were extracted through literature research and factor analysis.Based on decision-making and experimental evaluation laboratory and interpretative structural model,an adversarial multi-level hierarchical structure model(DEMATEL-AISM)was built to calculate the importance of each influential factor and to clarify the coupling relationship between factors of railway engineering construction risk identification.The results show that the effect of risk identification in railway engineering construction is affected by a combination of three factors:direct layer,indirect layer,and root layer.Among them,hazard monitoring and analysis,personnel risk awareness,risk investigation measures,risk coping ability,railway construction objectives,expected risk consequences and risk identification technology are crucial factors affecting risk identification results,which should be focused on and controlled in the development of risk management of railway engineering.Based on the model results,the hierarchy and causality of risk identification factors were analyzed,and some suggestions and strategies for risk identification of railway engineering construction were put forward from three aspects:risk internal control,construction of project integration risk management system,and establishment of dynamic risk early warning mechanism.The research results are beneficial to improve the comprehensiveness and scientificalness of the risk identification results of large-scale railway engineering construction and have certain reference values and significance for establishing a railway engineering construction risk identification system.关键词
铁路工程建设/风险辨识/风险识别影响因素/对抗多级递阶结构模型(DEMATEL-AISM)Key words
railway construction/risk identification/influencing factors of risk identification/adversarial multi-level hierarchical structure model(DEMATEL-AISM)分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
郭峰,李媛媛,彭晓菁,古江林..基于DEMATEL-AISM的铁路工程建设风险识别影响因素与优化策略研究[J].铁道科学与工程学报,2024,21(2):802-811,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71440009) （71440009）
中国中铁股份有限公司科技研究开发计划重大课题(2021-重大-06) （2021-重大-06）
