生物灾害科学2024，Vol.47Issue(1)：101-110,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-3704.2024.01.15
红河烟区烟草黑胫病和野火病发生的气象因子分析与模型构建
A study on key meteorological factors affecting the occurrence of tobacco black shank and wildfire diseases in tobacco-growing area of Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study was conducted to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of climate changes in Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture from 2010 to 2021 and construct the prediction models for tobacco black shank and wildfire diseases.[Method]The Mann-Kendall(MK)trend analysis,Pearson correlation analysis,and stepwise multiple regression were used to analyze meteorological data and then build the models.[Result]During the entire tobacco growing period,there was a significant decrease in the number of hours of sunshine in Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture.In Lüxi tobacco-growing area,there was a significant increase in the average temperature during the vigorous growth and late maturity stages of tobacco.In Jianshui tobacco-growing area,the number of hours of sunshine during the vigorous growth,pre-maturity,and late maturity stages of tobacco all showed significant decreases.The R2 values for constructing disease warning models by using meteorological factors significantly correlated with black shank and wildfire diseases were 0.9984 and 0.9752,respectively.[Conclusion]Establish early warning models for black shank disease and wildfire disease,the R2 value is high and the fit is good.关键词
烟叶病害/气象要素时空特征/预警模型/红河哈尼族彝族自治州Key words
tobacco diseases/meteorological index/early warning model/Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
韩雨静,陈作涛,郭建,刘春明,侯秋强,何建忠,单双吕,张鲁民,陈天宏,杨桂林,何彦辉..红河烟区烟草黑胫病和野火病发生的气象因子分析与模型构建[J].生物灾害科学,2024,47(1):101-110,10.基金项目
中国烟草总公司云南省公司科技计划项目[2021530000241020]和中国烟草总公司绿色防控重大专项项目[110202101026(LS-01)] （LS-01）
