热带气象学报2023，Vol.39Issue(6)：857-871,15.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2023.074
台风"黑格比"造成浙东北滞后型暴雨成因分析及多模式预报检验
CAUSE ANALYSIS AND MULTI-MODEL FORECAST VERIFICATION OF RETARDED RAINSTORM RELATED WITH TYPHOON HAGUPIT IN NORTHEASTERN ZHEJIANG PROVINCE
摘要
Abstract
Based on conventional observation data,intensive observation data,the optimal path of tropical cyclone from China Meteorological Administration,reanalysis fields from ERA5 and radar\satellite data,the causes of rainstorm in Northeastern Zhejiang province triggered by the lingering raining cloud cluster in the south after typhoon Hagupit landed and weakened northward were analyzed by using weather diagnosis method.Affected by westward of west ridge point of the middle troposphere subtropical high and convergence sinking of right side of the upper jet stream exit area on the north of typhoon,the typhoon cloud system has obvious asymmetric structure,mainly distributed in the south side.The mesoscale convective systems were triggered by the middle troposphere cold air invaded from the west of typhoon and the small-scale cloud cluster moved counterclockwise to the east of typhoon and developed retention,causing heavy precipitation in Northeastern Zhejiang Province.During the rainstorm period,the intersection area of warm and cold air(the positive MPV1 in the middle troposphere and the negative MPV2 in the lower troposphere)and the frontogenesis great value area in the middle-lower troposphere can indicate the rainstorm area.The vertical helicity can also reflect the vertical structure evolution characteristics of typhoon backward-tilt after the cold air invasion.The continuous water vapor transport of the southwest jet on the east of typhoon was beneficial to the maintenance and development of convective precipitation in Northeastern Zhejiang Province at night and the water vapor divergence area can forecast the heavy precipitation area by leading about 6h.Based on the SAL quantitative precipitation verification,the large scale models cannot predict retarded rainstorm amplification at night due to the deficiency of simulated convective precipitation evolution;the meso-micro scale models described rainstorm intensity accurately,relatively,but the great value area deviated;the cumulative precipitation forecast by ECMWF(Initial:20:00 on the 3rd)is slightly error,which is closer than that of 08:00 on the 4th,however,the short-time rainstorm occurred 3-6 h earlier,which was bad for the forecast of such retained regional rainstorm.关键词
台风/滞后型暴雨/湿位涡/锋生/SAL定量降水检验Key words
typhoon/retarded rainstorm/moist potential vorticity/frontogenesis/SAL quantitative precipitation verification分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
吴俊杰,段晶晶,辛欣,周炳君,王健捷..台风"黑格比"造成浙东北滞后型暴雨成因分析及多模式预报检验[J].热带气象学报,2023,39(6):857-871,15.基金项目
浙江省预报员专项(2020YBY06) （2020YBY06）
国家自然科学基金项目(42105135)共同资助 （42105135）
