热带气象学报2023，Vol.39Issue(6)：872-882,11.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2023.075
贵州省61年冰雹气候特征及其成因分析
CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS AND CAUSES OF HAIL IN GUIZHOU:1961-2021
摘要
Abstract
Based on the hail observational data from 84 national stations in Guizhou Province during 1961-2021,the temporal and spatial distribution of hail in Guizhou in recent 61 years were studied by using regression analysis,wavelet analysis and EOF decomposition.Anomalies of atmospheric circulation and external forcing factors were also adopted to analyze hail frequency.The results showed that hail can occur all year long in Guizhou with most in spring and least in autumn.On a daily scale,hail mainly occurred in the afternoon and evening from 14:00 to 01:00.The occurrence of hail in Guizhou showed oscillation cycles of 14 years and eight years,and the trend changed around 1995 with shorter oscillation and lower frequency.The central and western regions were more hail-prone,and the annual average hail frequency was positively correlated with altitude.After EOF decomposition,the first two modes of spatial distribution of hail in Guizhou were provincial consistent and east-west opposite in the spatial vector field.Hail caused by large-scale circulation and topography tended to decrease.After 1991,hail induced by terrain and local convection in the east of central Guizhou slightly increased,but its variance contribution rate was small.Therefore,the overall number of hail days in Guizhou exhibited a downward trend.Through the analysis of atmospheric circulation and external forcing factors,it was found that the anomaly of sea surface temperature in a La Niña year triggered abnormal cyclones in the tropical northwest Pacific,leading to a weaker Subtropical High in the region and further affected negative height anomalies in Guizhou and its surrounding areas,which was favorable for the occurrence of hail in Guizhou.By contrast,the number of hail events in Guizhou decreased in El Niño years.关键词
冰雹/时空分布特征/EOF分解/小波分析/成因分析Key words
hail/temporal and spatial distribution characteristics/EOF decomposition/wavelet analysis/cause analysis分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘涛,夏晓玲,彭宇翔,唐辟如,李皓,文继芬..贵州省61年冰雹气候特征及其成因分析[J].热带气象学报,2023,39(6):872-882,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金地区科学基金(41965010) （41965010）
贵州省科技计划项目(黔科合支撑[2020]1Y067号) （黔科合支撑[2020]1Y067号）
贵州省科技计划项目(黔科合基础-ZK[2021]一般217、黔科合基础-ZK[2022]一般246、黔科合基础-ZK[2023]一般200) （黔科合基础-ZK[2021]一般217、黔科合基础-ZK[2022]一般246、黔科合基础-ZK[2023]一般200）
贵州省气象局重要业务科研项目(黔气标合ZY[2018]04) （黔气标合ZY[2018]04）
中国气象局云雾物理环境重点开放实验室开放课题(2021Z00724) （2021Z00724）
中国烟草公司重点研发项目(2022XM12)共同资助 （2022XM12）
