热带气象学报2023，Vol.39Issue(6)：929-939,11.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2023.079
利用贝叶斯方法对广东省雷暴大风天气的预报研究
RESEARCH ON THUNDERSTORM GALE WEATHER FORECAST IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE BY USING BAYESIAN METHOD
摘要
Abstract
This paper studied the individual cases of weather with and without thunderstorm gales in Guangdong Province from April to September 2010-2019.The distribution characteristics of environmental parameters related to the weather with thunderstorm gales were analyzed by using boxplots,and the three hours,six hours,and 12 hours thunderstorm gale forecast models were established.The meteorological events from April to September 2020 were tested by using the Bayesian method.The results show that the occurrence of thunderstorm gales corresponds to higher dewpoint temperature on the ground,more unstable energy,temperature difference between upper and lower layers,and total index.According to the test results,the Bayesian method may to some extent identify thunderstorm gales.The hit rate of the prediction model is above 80%,but there are some empty reports,which need to be addressed in the future.关键词
雷暴大风/环境参数/贝叶斯方法/TS评分/潜势预报Key words
thunderstorm gale/environmental parameters/bayesian method/TS score/potential forecast分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
朱泳桦,王咏青,胡志群..利用贝叶斯方法对广东省雷暴大风天气的预报研究[J].热带气象学报,2023,39(6):929-939,11.基金项目
广东省重点领域研发计划(2020B1111200001) （2020B1111200001）
国家自然科学基金(41875070、41575040) （41875070、41575040）
北极阁开放研究基金(NJCAR2018MS02) （NJCAR2018MS02）
云南省科技项目(2018BC007)共同资助 （2018BC007）
