热带气象学报2023，Vol.39Issue(6)：955-964,10.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2023.081
WRF/WRF-Hydro气象-水文耦合模式的误差传递特征
ERROR PROPAGATION CHARACTERISTECS OF WRF/WRF-HYDRO METEOROLOGICAL-HYDROLOGICAL COUPLING MODEL:TAKING THE RUNOFF FORECASTING IN ZHANGHE RIVER BASIN AS AN EXAMPLE
摘要
Abstract
Effective flood forecast periods are important for scheduling decisions making,flood prevention,and disaster mitigation in small and medium river basins.In this study,a WRF/WRF-Hydro meteorological-hydrological coupling model is established based on the WRF model and the WRF-Hydro model to explore the influence of WRF precipitation on runoff forecasting in Zhanghe River Basin under different forecast periods and the propagation of uncertainty from meteorological model to hydrological model.The results show that:(1)The more extended the forecast period,the more serious the overestimation of the rainfall peak predicted by the WRF model under different forecast periods.Under 06 h and 12 h forecast periods,the forecast error of rainfall amount and peak precipitation time is smaller,and the forecast of rainfall area is obviously better than that under longer forecast periods(24 h and 48 h).(2)The runoff forecast results of the meteorological-hydrological coupling model show that the longer the forecast period,the more serious the overestimation of runoff peak.The runoff forecast results under 06 h and 12 h forecast periods are better,and the average correlation coefficient and average Nash coefficient increase by 0.15 and 0.69 respectively.(3)The error propagation characteristics between models are different due to the length of forecast period and the effect of rainfall forecast.Under 06 h and 12 h forecast periods,the error of numerical weather forecast is magnified and reduced after propagation to the hydrological model.Under longer forecast period(24 h and 48 h),the longer the forecast period,the greater the hydrological model amplifies the error of numerical weather forecast.关键词
气象-水文耦合/预见期/降雨-径流预报/漳河流域/误差传递Key words
meteorological-hydrological coupling/forecast period/rainfall-runoff forecasting分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
丛琳沂,高玉芳,彭涛,胡泊..WRF/WRF-Hydro气象-水文耦合模式的误差传递特征[J].热带气象学报,2023,39(6):955-964,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3004003、2018YFC1506803、2018YFC1507204) （2022YFC3004003、2018YFC1506803、2018YFC1507204）
国家自然科学基金面上项目(41675102) （41675102）
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2022J018、CXFZ2022J019) （CXFZ2022J018、CXFZ2022J019）
湖北省气象局科技发展基金(2020Q03)共同资助 （2020Q03）
