人民黄河2024，Vol.46Issue(3)：22-27,69,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2024.03.005
沙柳河流域1969-2020年径流变化及归因分析
Analysis of Runoff Changes and Attribution in the Shaliu River Basin from 1969 to 2020
摘要
Abstract
Taking the Shaliu River watershed in the Qinghai Lake Basin as the research object,the Penman-Monteith formula was used to ex-plore the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of the potential evapotranspiration ET0 in the watershed,and the Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests were used to test the runoff trend and mutation characteristics of the Shaliu River watershed from 1969 to 2020.Based on hydrothermal coupling equilibrium theory,it analyzed and quantified the contribution of each factor to runoff change.The results show that the potential e-vapotranspiration in the watershed showed a downward trend from 1969 to 2020,with an average decrease rate of 4.8 mm/10 a.Through the mutation test,it was identified that the runoff had a mutation point in 2004(the runoff decreased before 2004 and then increased significant-ly).The elastic analysis of runoff change based on the hydrothermal coupling balance equation of the watershed shows that when the annual precipitation,potential evapotranspiration and underlying surface parameters increase by 10%respectively during the study period,the annual runoff increases by 14.4%,decreases by 4.4%and decreases by 8.8%respectively.The results of the runoff change attribution analysis show that climate change and human activities contribute 70.4%and 29.6%respectively to the decrease in runoff in the Shaliu River watershed.Cli-mate change is the main reason for the increase in runoff in the watershed and precipitation is the main factor affecting the variation of runoff.关键词
水热耦合平衡理论/归因分析/沙柳河流域/青海湖盆地Key words
hydrothermal coupling equilibrium theory/attribution analysis/Shaliu River watershed/Qinghai Lake Basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
田庆斌,王海彬,刘家宏,严建功..沙柳河流域1969-2020年径流变化及归因分析[J].人民黄河,2024,46(3):22-27,69,7.基金项目
青海省科技成果转化专项(2022-SF-143) （2022-SF-143）
