水科学进展2024，Vol.35Issue(1)：156-166,11.DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2024.01.014
全球气象预报驱动流域水文预报研究进展与展望
Research progresses and prospects of catchment hydrological forecasting driven by global climate forecasts
摘要
Abstract
Global climate models and emerging artificial intelligence models generate big climate forecasts data for catchment hydrological forecasting at daily,sub-seasonal and seasonal timescales.The utilization of global climate forecasts to drive catchment hydrological models are confronted with the technical issues of climate forecast data retrieval,hydrological forecasting model set-up and verification of hydro-climatic forecasts.Starting with international collaborative research projects on global climate forecasting,this paper conducts a survey of short-term weather forecasts for the next 1 day to 2 weeks,sub-seasonal climate forecasts for the next 1 to 60 days,seasonal climate forecasts for the next 1 to 12 months and artificial intelligence-based climate forecasts.Furthermore,the processes of catchment hydrological forecasting driven by global climate forecasts are illustrated by detailing the technical aspects on the calibration of climate forecasts,the setting-up of hydrological models and the verification of predictive performance.By generating real-time and retrospective catchment hydrological forecasts from global climate forecasts,the efficacy of forecasting models can be quantitatively examined by verifying forecast skill at different lead times,laying a solid basis for practical forecasts-based operations of hydraulic infrastructure.关键词
全球气象模型/气象预报/流域水文模型/水文预报/实时预报/回顾性预报/预报检验Key words
global climate model/climate forecasts/catchment hydrological model/hydrological forecasts/real-time forecasts/retrospective forecasts/forecast verification分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
赵铜铁钢,张弛,田雨,李昱,陈泽鑫,陈晓宏..全球气象预报驱动流域水文预报研究进展与展望[J].水科学进展,2024,35(1):156-166,11.基金项目
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2023YFF0804900) （2023YFF0804900）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52379033)The study is financially supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2023YFF0804900)and the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52379033). （52379033）
