气候变化研究进展2024，Vol.20Issue(1)：97-106,10.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.177
中国电网全生命周期碳排放及发电结构转型路径规划研究
Whole life cycle carbon emission and power generation structure transformation pathway planning of China's power
摘要
Abstract
To evaluate the lifecycle carbon emission intensity of the power industry and analyze its peak emission pathway,a calculation model for the national and regional power grid lifecycle carbon emission factors had been proposed,at the same time,the lifecycle carbon emission intensity of power over the years and its influencing factors had been measured.Then,using scenario analysis,the lifecycle carbon emissions and its peak situation of the power industry from 2022 to 2060 under different power transformation scenarios had been analyzed.The results show that:(1)From 2011 to 2021,China had achieved certain results in transforming its power generation structure.The lifecycle carbon emission factor of the national power grid decreased from 763.94 to 557.73 g/(kW∙h).However,the reduction in carbon emissions from clean energy generation was unable to offset the increase in carbon emissions from thermal power,resulting in the lifecycle carbon emissions of the power industry still growing at an average annual rate of 2.6%,increasing from 3.61 Gt to 4.68 Gt.(2)The transition to cleaner power generation and advancement in decarbonization technologies for coal power are important measures to reduce the lifecycle carbon emission intensity of the power industry.(3)Under the fast transition scenario,the baseline scenario,and the slow transition scenario,China's lifecycle carbon emissions from power industry can reach the peak in 2025,2027 and 2030,respectively,and the baseline scenario will have a peak of 5.205 Gt carbon emissions and 1.578 Gt carbon emissions in 2060,which is lower than the carbon absorption capacity of China's natural ecosystems.关键词
碳达峰/全生命周期/碳排放因子/发电结构/情景分析法Key words
Carbon peaking/Whole life cycle/Carbon emission factor/Power generation structure/Scenario analysis引用本文复制引用
田佩宁,梁肖,官雨捷,赵义馨,毛保华,薛婷..中国电网全生命周期碳排放及发电结构转型路径规划研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2024,20(1):97-106,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(T19A300050) （T19A300050）
