水土保持研究2024，Vol.31Issue(2)：43-51,59,10.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.02.015
基于Morris和Sobol法的茶园地上部生物量与氮磷流失模拟敏感性分析
Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation of Aboveground Biomass and Nitrogen and Phosphorus Losses in Tea Plantation Based on Morris and Sobol Methods
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The objectives of this study are to assess the influence of soil,topography,and crop parameters on the simulation accuracy of aboveground biomass and losses of nitrogen and phosphorus in tea gardens using the DNDC model,to identify the most sensitive parameters for each model output,and to provide guidance for calibrating the model.[Methods]Based on the data of tea garden plot in the Tianmu Lake Basin and DNDC model,qualitative Morris method and quantitative Sobol method were applied to carry out sensitivity analysis on the simulated aboveground biomass,nitrogen and phosphorus loss(including nitrogen and phosphorus leaching and nitrogenous gas emissions)and water leaching of tea garden,and to evaluate the sensitive parameters of each output.The uncertainty of model output was quantified by Monte Carlo method.[Results]The most important parameter affecting aboveground biomass is the grain fraction of total biomass at maturity,the most important parameter affecting nitrogen leaching is soil clay fraction,the most important parameter affecting phosphorus leaching is soil bulk density,the most important parame-ter affecting water leaching is slope gradient,the most important parameter affecting N2 O emission is the initial soil organic carbon(SOC)content,and the most important parameter affecting NO emission and NH3 emission is soil p H value.Among the output results,the uncertainty of phosphorus leaching loss is the largest,and the coefficient of variation is 43.84% .The uncertainty of water leakage is the least,and the coef-ficient of variation is 2.36% .Compared with Sobol method,Morris method is convenient and time-saving,while Sobol method is accurate and comprehensive.The correlation comparison of parameter sensitivity rank-ing obtained by the two methods is 0.86,which has certain substitutability.[Conclusion]Before calibrating the model,it is advisable to employ the Morris method for preliminary identification of sensitive parameters and subsequently utilize the Sobol method for precise quantification.This approach enables efficient and accu-rate screening of the model's sensitive parameters.Based on this premise,the correction of sensitive crop parameters is prioritized while keeping non-sensitive parameters fixed,followed by addressing sensitive soil parameters.The results of this study can provide scientific support for the localization of DNDC model and improve the simulation accuracy and efficiency of the tea garden ecosystem in the Tianmu Lake Basin.关键词
敏感性分析/DNDC模型/天目湖流域Key words
sensitivity analysis/DNDC model/Tianmu Lake Basin分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
叶志成,张莉莉,廖凯华,朱青,赖晓明,郭长强..基于Morris和Sobol法的茶园地上部生物量与氮磷流失模拟敏感性分析[J].水土保持研究,2024,31(2):43-51,59,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(42171077) （42171077）
江苏省碳达峰碳中和科技创新专项资金项目(BK20220042) （BK20220042）
中国科学院青年创新促进会基金(2020317) （2020317）
中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所自主部署科研项目(NIGLAS2022GS10) （NIGLAS2022GS10）
