基于CMIP6多模式的黄土高原气温变化模拟评估及情景预估OA北大核心CSTPCD

[Objective]The aims of this study are to clarify the future trend and magnitude of temperature increase in the Loess Plateau,and to provide reference for future temperature change decision-making events,flood control and disaster reduction in the Loess Plateau.[Methods]This study was based on the simulation results of 22 Earth-climate system models in the latest sixth International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6).After systematically assessing the simulation capability of each model historical period(1961-2014)through observational data,the multi-model ensemble of 10 models was selected to analyze the temperature change characters in the Loess Plateau from 2015 to 2100 under different shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs).[Results]The warming rate of the Loess Plateau reaches 0.09℃/decade,0.28℃/decade,0.48℃/decade and 0.66℃/decade in 2015-2100 under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,respectively.By contrast to 1995-2014,the warming reaches 1.53℃,2.69℃,3.83℃ and 5.25℃ in 2081-2100,respectively.Except for the SSP1-2.6 emission scenario,the warming in other scenarios has far exceeded the target of limiting global 2℃ warming in the Paris Agree-ment,and under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario,the warming in 2041-2060 has already reached 2.36℃.Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,even the spring,summer,autumn and winter temperatures in the Loess Plat-eau from 2081 to 2100 vary in the range of 3.83～4.75℃,4.75～5.67℃,4.98～5.67℃ and 4.29～5.67℃ compared to 1995-2014.[Conclusion]The Loess Plateau will face a strong warming pressure in the future,with a higher rate of temperature increase under the higher emission scenarios.The observational research on the temperature of the Loess Plateau should be strengthened in the future.