水土保持研究2024，Vol.31Issue(2)：190-201,12.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.02.035
未来气候情景下青藏高原草地净初级生产力时空演变特征
Characteristics of Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Grassland Net Primary Productivity on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Under Future Climate Scenarios
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The aims of this study are to explore the effects of different climatic factors(tempera-ture and precipitation)on the grassland Net Primary Productivity(NPP)of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP)under the two climate scenarios SSP126 and SSP585,and to clarify the main climatic factors affecting the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of grassland NPP on the QTP,so as to provide a theoret-ical basis for the comprehensive management of vegetation ecosystem on the QTP in the future.[Methods]Based on the daily value meteorological data and soil type data of 48 meteorological stations on the QTP dur-ing the base period(1971-2020)and the site management data required by the model,the model parameters were calibrated by using the DAILY CENTURY(DAYCENT)model,and the measured NPP values and MOD17 A3 remote sensing data of corresponding stations in the literature,and the results were evaluated by means of the root-mean-square error,determinability coefficient,efficiency coefficient and other statistical indexes.Secondly,a one-way nested BCC-CSM1.1 climate model was used to predict the NPP of grassland on the QTP under the future climate SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios,and the prediction results were statistically analyzed on spatial and temporal scales.[Results](1)Under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios,the NPP of the QTP shows the decreasing distribution from southeast to northwest,and the area with higher NPP value was mainly located in the southeast of the QTP,while the area with lower NPP value will be located in the west of the QTP.(2)Under the SSP126 scenario,the NPP of grassland on the QTP generally shows the downward trend,and the largest fluctuation range will be in the long-term period(2081-2100),with a de-crease rate of 12.1% .Under the SSP585 scenario,NPP generally presents a steady upward trend,with the highest growth rate of 12% in the near future(2021-2040).(3)Compared with the baseline period(1971-2021),under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios,the NPP of more than 85% grassland on the QTP shows the decreasing trend,and the NPP value of SSP126 and SSP585 will decrease by 28% and 23%,respectively,compared with the baseline period(1971-2020).[Conclusion]Under the two different climate scenarios,the correlation between temperature and NPP is higher than that of precipitation.Low temperature and lack of rainfall are the main reasons for the decrease of grassland NPP in the northwest of the QTP.关键词
DAYCENT模型/未来气候情景/净初级生产力/青藏高原Key words
DAYCENT model/future climate scenarios/net primary productivity/Qinghai-Tibet Plateau分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
徐士博,张美玲,宿茂鑫..未来气候情景下青藏高原草地净初级生产力时空演变特征[J].水土保持研究,2024,31(2):190-201,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(32260353) （32260353）
甘肃省重点研发计划(21YF5WA096) （21YF5WA096）
科技部高端外国专家引进计划(G2022042009L) （G2022042009L）
甘肃农业大学青年导师扶持基金(GUO-QDFC-2019-03) （GUO-QDFC-2019-03）
横向项目(GSAU-JSFW-2022-20) （GSAU-JSFW-2022-20）
甘肃省自然科学基金(1606RJZA077,1308RJZA262) （1606RJZA077,1308RJZA262）
