水土保持研究2024，Vol.31Issue(2)：299-309,11.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.02.032
基于FLUS模型多情景土地利用变化对陆地生态系统碳储量影响
Estimating Terrestrial Eco-System Carbon Stock Changes Caused by Multi-Scenarios Land-Use Changes Based on the FLUS Model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The aims of this study are to reveal the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of carbon storage in Pingxiang,to clarify the relationship between land use change and carbon storage,and to provide data support for understanding the carbon storage status of the regional ecosystem.[Methods]The FLUS(future land use simulation)model and the InVEST(integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs)model were used to predict the carbon storage values under three different scenarios(natural development,farmland protection,and ecological priority)in Pingxiang City in 2030.[Results](1)From 2010 to 2020 the carbon storage in Pingxiang City showed an overall decreasing trend with a total reduction of 1.47×106t.(2)The increase in farmland,construction land,grassland,water bodies,and construction land area,as well as the decrease in forest and shrub area were the main reasons for the changes in carbon storage.(3)In 2030,under the scenarios of natural development,farmland protection,and ecological priority,the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems in Pingxiang City will be approximately 4.906×107,4.919×107 and 5.038×107 t,respectively,with the least carbon storage loss observed in the ecological priority scenario.[Conclusion]The carbon storage of the Pingxiang ecosystem is declining mainly due to the increase in farm-land and construction land.In the future,monitoring and research should be strengthened in key areas of change in Anyuan District and the Economic Development Zone.关键词
土地利用变化/碳中和/FLUS/情景模拟/萍乡市Key words
land use change/carbon neutrality/FLUS/scenario simulation/Pingxiang City分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
胡佶熹,勒先文,徐勇..基于FLUS模型多情景土地利用变化对陆地生态系统碳储量影响[J].水土保持研究,2024,31(2):299-309,11.基金项目
江西省社会科学基金"萍乡市城乡融合发展对策研究"(21DQ14) （21DQ14）
