市政技术2024，Vol.42Issue(2)：68-74,80,8.DOI:10.19922/j.1009-7767.2024.02.068
基于充电概率的区域电动汽车充电负荷预测
Prediction of Regional Electric Vehicle Charging Load by Charging Probability
叶湘 1罗瑛 1李洁1
作者信息
- 1. 湖南大学土木工程学院,湖南长沙 410000
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Under the Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality("double carbon")strategy,electric vehicle(EV)in-dustry has developed rapidly in China.But it also brings challenges to the configuration of regional power grids and the operation of charging stations.In order to more accurately predict the charging load of EV in the region at differ-ent times and improve the precision of existing research,the travel behavior and charging behavior data of EV users were firstly analyzed in a region of Shanghai.Considering the charging probability in different periods of a day,the regional EV charging load prediction model was established by Monte Carlo method.The results show that the aver-age daily mileage of EV in this region is 37.5 km higher than that of private passenger vehicles;The power con-sumption per 100 km of EV with different battery models varies greatly;There are obvious"three peaks"of charging load in this area,which occur at 7:00,14:00 and 22:00 respectively.Finally,according to the supply and demand situation of public charging stations,targeted suggestions are put forward to optimize the regional power grid configu-ration and improve the utilization rate of charging stations in order to achieve the maximum utilization of resources.The EV charging load forecasting model by Monte Carlo method can enrich the regional charging load forecasting method.The research results provide a reference for the planning and construction of EV infrastructure.关键词
电动汽车/出行行为/充电行为/充电负荷/蒙特卡洛方法Key words
electric vehicle(EV)/travel behavior/charging behavior/charging load/Monte Carlo method分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
叶湘,罗瑛,李洁..基于充电概率的区域电动汽车充电负荷预测[J].市政技术,2024,42(2):68-74,80,8.
