现代电子技术2024，Vol.47Issue(6)：55-62,8.DOI:10.16652/j.issn.1004-373x.2024.06.009
计及电动汽车保有量增长需求的充电负荷预测
Charging load forecasting considering growth demand for electric vehicle ownership
摘要
Abstract
Most of the current studies on EV charging load focus on short-term evolution,and there is not much research on the development under long time scale.A charging load forecasting model for the growth demand of electric vehicle ownership is proposed.The firefly algorithm is used to optimize the relevant parameters of the gray fore-casting model of electric vehicle ownership and forecast the electric vehicle ownership in a region from 2023 to 2033.The charging load prediction model is built by considering the prediction results of the ownership,users′ travel chain,driving mileage and charging start time,and combining the battery capacity and charging efficiency of EVs under different temperatures.The simulation prediction for the electric vehicle charging load from 2023 to 2033 in a region of Jiangsu Province is conducted.The simulation results can effectively predict the development trend of electric vehicle ownership in the next decade and the charging load considering the in-creasing demand of electric vehicle ownership.关键词
充电负荷预测/电动汽车保有量/萤火虫算法/灰色预测模型/用户出行链/电池容量Key words
charging load prediction/electric vehicle ownership/firefly algorithm/grey prediction model/user travel chain/battery capacity分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
于梦桐,高辉,杨凤坤..计及电动汽车保有量增长需求的充电负荷预测[J].现代电子技术,2024,47(6):55-62,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52077107) （52077107）
