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智库视角下的智能决策研究OACHSSCDCSTPCD

Research on Intelligent Decision-making from the perspective of think tanks:Based on the MIPS Method

中文摘要英文摘要

[目的/意义]决策范式逐渐从信息化向智能化升级转型.为使智能决策更好地赋能智库问题研究,本文通过探索智能决策与智库问题研究的耦合机理、影响状况、相关政策,提出具体对策建议,以期助力我国智库高质量发展.[方法/过程]本文基于MIPS(Mechanism analysis-Impact analysis-Policy analysis-Solution)逻辑层次法,在机理分析层,引入智能决策技术和思路,从智库问题研究领域、研究方法和实践工具入手,剖析智能决策与智库研究的内在耦合机理;在影响分析层,从学术研究、学科发展和机构赋能3个角度分析智能决策对智库领域发展带来的影响;在政策分析层,梳理和对比分析国内外智能决策相关的代表性政策.[结果/结论]综合上述研究结果,本文从要重视新技术发展、关注科技伦理和知识产权问题、促进智能决策相关方向的智库人才培养和加强制度政策保障等 4 个层面提出思考建议.

[Purpose/significance]The decision-making paradigm is gradually transforming from informati-zation to intelligent upgrading.In order to enable intelligent decision-making to better empower think tank prob-lem research,this paper explores the coupling mechanism,impact status,and related policies of intelligent deci-sion-making and think tank problem research,and puts forward specific countermeasures and suggestions in order to promote the high-quality development of our country's think tanks.[Method/process]This paper adopts the MIPS(Mechanism analysis-Impact analysis-Policy analysis-Solution)logical hierarchy method as its conceptual framework.At the mechanism analysis level,this paper introduces decision intelligence technology and concepts,delving into the intricate coupling mechanisms between decision intelligence and think tank research,by analyz-ing the research field,research methods,and practical tools of think tank problems.At the level of impact analysis,this paper scrutinizes the effects of decision intelligence on think tank development from three perspectives:aca-demic research,discipline development,and institutional empowerment.At the level of policy analysis,this paper categorizes and compares representative policies related to decision making both domestically and internationally.[Result/conclusion]Combining the findings from the research mentioned above,suggestions are put forward from four perspectives,including emphasizing the development of new technologies,paying attention to scientific and technological ethics and intellectual property issues,promoting think tank talent cultivation in the direction of de-cision intelligence,and strengthening institutional policy guarantees.

刘怡君;张云睿;迟钰雪

中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190||中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院 北京 100049中央财经大学管理科学与工程学院 北京 100081

智库智能决策MIPS逻辑层次法

think tankintelligent decision-makingMIPS

《智库理论与实践》 2024 (001)

52-63 / 12

本文系国家自然科学基金面上项目"舆情大数据视角下的网络社会治理'时、度、效'研究"(项目编号:72074205)、国家自然科学基金青年项目"数据与知识驱动的重大突发事件舆情风险传导机理和防控策略研究"(项目编号:72204283)、国家自然科学基金重大项目"数字化社会风险感知与疏导的智能方法"(项目编号:T2293722)研究成果之一.

10.19318/j.cnki.issn.2096-1634.2024.01.06

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