基于辐射效应的粤港澳大湾区旅游经济结构演变研究OA北大核心CHSSCDCSTPCD

The development of regional tourism in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area can help build a living circle suitable for living,working and traveling,and enable it to have stronger and more sustainable tourism economic influence.Based on the theory of tourism radiation effect,this paper used dynamic factor analysis to evaluate the tourism competitive potential of the 11 cities,to act as the basis for the play of radiation effect,and constructed an gravity model to investigate the tourism economic connection in the the Greater Bay Area for comparing the characteristics and the causes of the tourism radiant potential from 2014 to 2021.The re-sults showed that:①As for the competitive potential,the total factor scores of Guangzhou,Hong Kong,Macao and Shenzhen were posi-tive.Among them,Guangzhou and Shenzhen maintained a relatively stable basic radiation capacity,while the basic radiation capacity of Hong Kong and Macao were affected by the deficiency of the resilience.②As for the radiant potential,the trend of multi-center devel-opment in the Greater Bay Area was significant,Dongguan and Foshan played the sub-central functions of"connecting the preceding and the following",yet the asymmetry of the radiation structure and the dis-coordination between competitive and radiant potential were equally severe.③The analysis of the radiation capacity of the major tourist cities showed that the Greater Bay Area has formed five main radiation links so far:the"Guangzhou-Foshan-Jiangmen-Zhaoqing"link,the"Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Dongguan-Huizhou"link,the"Macao-Zhuhai-Zhongshan-Jiangmen"link,the"Guangzhou-Dongguan-Huizhou"link and the"Macao-Hong Kong"link.